At 2 PM, the Bank of Japan officially announced a rate hike, and my trading group instantly exploded.

"Crash! Crash!" someone was frantically spamming. "Run, arbitrage funds are about to take profits!" someone eagerly posted screenshots of their liquidation.

But I looked at the market—BTC dropped 3%, ETH fell 5%, and then it stabilized. The entire group suddenly went quiet. Those who had been shouting the loudest started asking cautiously, "Is that it?"

I responded with five words: "The expectations have been priced in."

This is not hindsight. Last night, I stayed up until 3 AM analyzing and concluded that when the probability of a rate hike has soared to 98%, when the market has been pricing it in three months in advance, and when arbitrage positions have long since been closed—true risk has never been the known negative news, but the unexpected surprises that no one saw coming.

Today? No surprises. The Bank of Japan even added, "Real interest rates remain low, and we will adopt a gradual tightening strategy."

But this is just halftime. The real game has just begun—between the known negatives and the unknown future, how should you reallocate your assets?

So today, I made two decisions that seem contradictory: increase my BTC spot holdings because the market won't crash; and increase stablecoins because volatility will persist.

Stablecoins play a crucial role in this kind of expectation realization: they don't bet on the direction of price movement, their value remains constant regardless of policy changes; they provide ample liquidity, so you always have ammunition to strike when the market hesitates; they reduce decision anxiety—you don't have to guess where the bottom is because you already hold stable purchasing power.