2025-12-20 11:08:44

Retail traders often make one critical mistake: they obsess over potential returns and completely ignore what actually matters—the odds of it happening.

They've got it backwards. High payout ≠ good trade. The bigger the potential gain, the worse the probability usually is. Yet that's exactly what pulls them in.

Think about it. A 100x coin or a 50% dump prediction? Sounds tempting. But that's exactly the trap. They're sizing up trades based on what they could win, not on whether they're likely to win at all.

The ones who survive the market long-term do the opposite. They ask: "What's the real probability here?" before even glancing at the payout. A 60% win rate on modest gains beats a 5% win rate on moonshots every single time.

Most won't learn this lesson until their portfolio does.

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EternalMiner

· 12h ago

To be honest, I’ve seen too many people chase 100x coins and end up going all in. The probability is really seriously underestimated. --- Making money relies on surviving longer, not on one explosive move. The sooner you realize this, the better. --- I just want to ask, have you really calculated your win rate? Or do you just place orders based on returns? --- A 60% win rate with stable profits is much more reliable than a moonshot with a 5% chance. It’s that simple. --- It’s always the same, waiting until the account blows up before regretting not considering the probability. --- Stop. Instead of researching how much you can earn, it’s better to first understand how likely you are to earn it.

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GreenCandleCollector

· 12h ago

Honestly, this is the reason most people die in crypto. Dreaming of 100x every day, not realizing that probability theory has long since sentenced them to death. --- I just want to ask, why insist on betting that 0.5% moonshot... Isn't a steady 60% win rate more appealing? --- I've seen too many people go all-in on a certain coin just waiting to multiply their investment by 100, and what happens... their accounts are wiped out. Probability doesn't care about your big dreams; it won't be gentle with you. --- Hey, that's a valid point, but most people simply can't calculate the true probabilities. That's the most heartbreaking part. --- I have a friend like that, always researching some "divine coin," only looking at profit margins, not success rates... now there's barely anything left in his account. --- Gambler's mentality vs. mathematical mindset, that's the difference. The dividing line between traders and bagholders is actually that simple. --- One sentence: greed is the fastest poison to eat away your account, bar none.

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SocialFiQueen

· 12h ago

Honestly, I've seen too many people get blinded by 100x, and in the end, they lose even their principal... When it comes to probabilities, most people only realize it when they go bankrupt.

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SpeakWithHatOn

· 12h ago

Basically, it's a gambler's mentality—seeing 100x makes your eyes light up, and you don't think about the probabilities at all. A bunch of people are just waiting to get cut, only realizing it after losing everything. A stable 60% win rate truly outperforms those dreaming of 100x; this is the difference between those who survive and those who don't. Probability will always outweigh returns; those who understand, understand.

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rekt_but_resilient

· 12h ago

Basically, it's the gambler's mentality. Who can resist the temptation of 100x coins... But probability theory doesn't lie. Probability > returns. Why do so many people fail to understand such a simple truth? They only realize after a margin call. 60% win rate for steady gains vs. 5% for a dreamy 100x... Brother, I already know who won't survive the next bear market. Only after the portfolio blows up do you learn this lesson—truly high tuition. Stop talking about strategies. Most retail investors are just brainwashed by potential gains. Probability is something you can't see or touch at all.

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