#美联储降息政策 Polymarket data is very clear—93% chance of rate cuts in December, which is almost a certainty. But what’s truly worth paying attention to is the subsequent liquidity absorption capacity.

The operation of repurchasing $45 billion worth of US Treasuries per month indeed increases the chips, which explains why Coinbase is confident about the December market. However, rate cuts themselves are just catalysts; the key factor is still the flow of funds. Whale movement data shows that large transfers have increased in the past two days, especially the accelerated inflow of stablecoins into exchanges, indicating that additional capital is indeed lurking.

In the short term, the most critical factors are BTC’s triangle pattern and ETH’s $3000 support level. If these two levels can hold effectively after the rate cut announcement, the rebound potential will be quite significant. Additionally, derivatives data shows that some institutions are gradually building positions, although the position changes are still fluctuating, the overall trend is toward accumulation.

The probability of a reversal in January to 68% of no rate cut indicates that the market has already priced this in quite thoroughly. Therefore, the essence of this rally is not the rate cut itself, but the confirmation of liquidity expectations. It is recommended to continue monitoring the actions of large on-chain investors; if clear signals of concentrated accumulation appear, that will be the real start signal.