#大户持仓动态 $XLM Spot Market Analysis | 20251220

Stellar's recent moves are quite interesting—its ecosystem is booming, but the price is hesitating. Some say it will explode, while others warn of risks. Let’s break it down.

【The ecosystem is indeed on the rise】
The Stellar Community Fund has invested $14.4 million in 154 projects across 48 countries using XLM, which is quite a substantial move. Even more impressive, Stellar has integrated $3 billion worth of RWA (Real-World Assets), with Franklin Templeton involved, and the Marshall Islands even using XLM for universal basic income. These are not just empty words; they are backed by real institutions.

【Technical aspects are somewhat divided】
In the short term, it is indeed rising— the 7-period EMA has broken through the 25- and 99-period EMAs, with the price up 2.77% in 24 hours, standing at 0.2225. But here’s the concern: the MACD line has just crossed below the signal line, and the histogram turned negative (0.00003894). The RSI has surged to 76.76, indicating overbought conditions, and the price remains above the Bollinger Bands. This suggests a significant risk of a pullback.

Additionally, large outflows indicate some institutions are starting to let go—outflow ratios during certain periods reached levels of 0.4250 and 0.4130, implying some entities are selling off.

【Community opinions】
This is where it gets interesting. One group is excited, saying “an explosion is imminent,” aiming for higher prices. Another group is a bit wary, looking at the MACD and RSI and even considering shorting. But most people are actually optimistic about Stellar’s fundamentals, especially those institutional-level applications. However, whether it can break through key resistance levels in the short term remains to be seen.

Summary: The ecosystem is very solid, but caution is needed on the technical side in the short term.