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The latest U.S. economic data released for November is indeed intriguing—inflation figures came in below expectations, while the unemployment rate jumped. Behind this seemingly contradictory phenomenon may lie subtle shifts in the market landscape expected in 2025.

Let's start with the fundamentals. The U.S. government shutdown has had some impact on data collection, leading many market participants to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. However, as time progresses, analyses from some professional institutions are beginning to emerge. Michael Lorizio, Head of U.S. Rates at Manulife Investment Management, straightforwardly states: even after removing distortions, the room for inflation to significantly overshoot expectations in the future is quite limited.

An even more interesting point he raises is another question: if the unemployment rate continues to rise at the current pace (0.1 percentage points per month), does the market underestimate the potential for rate cuts next year? This perspective is worth pondering.

What do these signals mean for investors?

First, trends often quietly develop while most people are still hesitating. If inflation indeed moves toward being under control, and the employment market merely slows down mildly rather than deteriorates rapidly, policymakers' attitudes could shift direction. Such subtle changes in macro expectations often lead market performance by some time.

Second, is the current data combination hinting at a new liquidity narrative being laid out? From the perspective of the crypto market, shifts in liquidity expectations can often lead to rebalancing of asset allocations. The strategies investors are deploying now could directly influence performance in the coming months.

Finally, could a slowdown in inflation coupled with a modest decline in employment create new market opportunities? The answer may vary from person to person, but it’s certainly worth deep consideration.

What are your thoughts on these signals? Feel free to share your observations and ideas in the comments section, and let’s track the next steps in the market together.