#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The market may be approaching a critical inflection point, with the January rate cut window opening.

The three major Wall Street investment banks are collectively optimistic about rate cut expectations. Citi predicts that the Federal Reserve will unexpectedly cut rates in January, with three rate cuts expected this year; Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are also taking a contrarian stance, similarly favoring a higher probability of a rate cut in January. This judgment is quite different from the official stance shown in the dot plot and also diverges from mainstream market views.

So the question is—will there really be a rate cut in January? Can the market rebound as a result?

Based on the pricing in the interest rate market, the probability is clearly increasing. A week ago, the expectation was 24%, now it has risen to 32%, and next week it could even approach 40%. This change is not unfounded. Before the December rate cut, the market experienced a similar scenario—at that time, the market priced in over a 70% chance of no rate cut, but after entering the policy meeting cycle, employment data continued to weaken, and the central bank officials finally loosened their stance.

Why is the probability rising? Looking at the data makes it clear.

The unemployment rate released on Tuesday directly beat expectations, jumping to 4.6%, the highest in the past four years. And it continues to rise. Last night’s inflation data was also not as hard as expected—only 2.7%, significantly below the market forecast of 3%.

The current situation is: as long as the employment and inflation data in January remain weak, the case for a rate cut is very strong. In the long term, the trend may still be downward, but in the short term, there is indeed room for further rate cuts in January. And the implications for on-chain assets, I believe you can also guess.