#美联储降息政策 The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25bp in December on Polymarket has risen to 94%, and this data is worth paying attention to. The $260 million trading volume reflects a high consensus in the market for rate cuts, with some funds even betting on an extreme scenario of a 50bp cut.

From an on-chain perspective, such changes in expectations typically trigger capital flows. Coinbase institutional insights also confirm this — they had anticipated position adjustments based on the M2 index as early as October, with a reversal in December after a weak November. Coupled with factors like liquidity recovery and increased attractiveness of shorting the USD, this indeed provides macro support for the crypto market.

However, it needs to be clarified that expectations and actual implementation may differ. The 94% probability is a market pricing, not a certainty of the event. The key point to observe is: once the rate cut is officially implemented, will whales take the opportunity to exit when expectations are fulfilled, or will they continue to hold and watch the subsequent policy path? Recent large on-chain transfers and exchange fund flows are more indicative of the true stance of institutions.

The opportunity in December’s market is indeed accumulating, but don’t be fooled by probability data — monitoring capital flows is the key.