Staring at the candlestick chart all day but unable to understand the true market trend. The key to the crypto market is not in the trading interface but across the Atlantic Ocean.

This is not some mysterious theory—institutions have long made their intentions clear. As long as the US unemployment rate increases by 0.1% month-over-month, the Federal Reserve's rate cut next year could far exceed market expectations. It sounds exaggerated, but this is the logical chain laid out on the table.

The signals are already very clear: inflation data has softened, and cracks are appearing in the employment market. The Federal Reserve is shifting from tightening to easing, not out of charity, but as a forced choice. Once global liquidity loosens, where will the funds flow? High-risk, high-reward assets will always be the first to benefit, and cryptocurrencies are at the forefront.

Many believe that the market is manipulated by big players. But the real big players are those who hold the interest rate levers and make policy based on employment reports. They adjust by one percentage point, and the global markets will shake. This is the fundamental force that determines bull and bear markets.

Recent data has already sent signals. November's economic data show the following characteristics: inflation is under control, but the employment situation cannot hold up. Once this combination is confirmed, expectations of liquidity easing will quickly ferment, and the capital market will react immediately.

As retail investors, how should you respond? There are a few principles worth remembering.

First, broaden your perspective. Don’t just look at minute charts and daily charts; the true trend is hidden in macro data. Unemployment rate, CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes—these are the real tools for manipulating the big cycle. Technical analysis is just surface, fundamentals are the foundation.

Second, leave room for flexibility. Strictly control your positions and always reserve an exit route. When the flood of funds truly arrives, those who are fully invested will have already been forced out. Flexible position management allows you to have bullets to jump in when real opportunities come.

Third, choose substantial assets. If the rate cut cycle truly begins, Bitcoin’s attributes as digital gold will shine again. Don’t be fooled by stories of various altcoins; core assets are the ones that can stand out in the big cycle.

Financial markets may seem unpredictable, but the rules are hidden in those cold, hard data. Changes in the unemployment rate after the decimal point, the wording of Federal Reserve meeting minutes—these subtle signals have long determined the market’s next direction.

The opportunity for retail investors lies here: stay patient, keep observing those truly important indicators, and once the timing is right, act decisively.