Stop focusing solely on the daily K-line. The true bull and bear logic is not inside the crypto circle, but rather in every policy decision made by the Federal Reserve.

The latest institutional analysis is simple: as long as the US unemployment rate rises by 0.1% each month, the Fed's rate cut next year could be much larger than expected. This is no longer speculation; it's almost a certainty. Inflation data is softening, cracks are appearing in the employment market, and the Fed's rate hike tools are already being put into cold storage.

This sounds like good news, but it's actually a calculated ploy. Once the global liquidity faucet is turned on, where will the funds flow? The history is clear—high-risk, high-reward assets will be the first to come under pressure, and cryptocurrencies are at the forefront. But the key point is that the expectation of this wave of liquidity easing is already fermenting.

Data from November has already sent signals: inflation is being contained, but employment can't hold up. The market is waiting for this moment. The real "big players" are not those technical experts, but the group that determines global monetary policy. When they adjust rate expectations, global asset prices will follow suit.

And what about retail investors? Here are a few core ideas to grasp:

First, don't get obsessed with short-term K-line battles. Macro liquidity is the main driver of long-term cycles; technical analysis is just a tactical tool. The current strategy should be to pay less attention to charts and more to economic data.

Second, position size always outweighs emotions. Before the rate cut expectations are truly realized, you need to keep enough ammunition. Going all-in too early often leads to losses before dawn.

Finally, focus on assets like Bitcoin that have a "hard currency" narrative. Once the global easing cycle begins, the story of digital gold will be reignited. Hold onto core assets and don't get distracted by the rebound rallies of various altcoins.

Market volatility appears to be the result, but fundamentally it is caused by external factors. Every small change in unemployment rate decimals, every sentence in the Fed meeting minutes, could be a foreshadowing of the next wave of market moves. Retail investors should patiently wait for opportunities, and when signals are clear, act with confidence and precision.