#预测市场活动 The Stable mainnet launches tonight at 21:00, and the prediction market data on Polymarket is quite interesting. There is an 85% probability that the FDV on the first day of betting will exceed $2 billion, while the pre-market price already corresponds to $3.5 billion. The discrepancy between these two figures is worth noting.

From on-chain signals, there is an inconsistency between market pricing and predicted probabilities. If calculated based on the pre-market price, the FDV has already exceeded the predicted upper limit, but the prediction market only assigns a 20% chance for values above $4 billion, indicating that the market's expectation for further upward movement is relatively cautious. This may reflect: first, concerns about liquidity; second, vigilance against a pullback after the high premium on the first day.

It is recommended to focus on the trading volume in the first two hours after launch and the movements of whale buy and sell orders. If large orders continue to flow in, breaking the $4 billion FDV is not impossible; conversely, if early buyers start to sell, there may be fluctuations within the expected range. The consensus in prediction markets is often more rationally priced, but the volatility on the first day is always greater than expected.