US inflation data unexpectedly declines, is the room for rate cuts seriously underestimated?

2025-12-20 07:00:17

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【Crypto World】The US inflation rate in November surprised many—far below economists’ previous forecasts, and unemployment also unexpectedly rose. How credible are these data? Due to a 43-day government shutdown, the statistics are incomplete, and many investors are cautious about these figures.

Manulife Investment Management’s Head of US Interest Rates and Mortgage Trading, Michael Lorizio, provided an interesting analysis. He pointed out that even considering the limitations of the data, the room for inflation to rise above expectations is actually quite limited. More interestingly, he believes that if the labor market maintains its current pace—meaning the unemployment rate increases by 0.1 percentage points each month—then the market may be severely underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year.

What does this mean? The expectations for rate cuts could be re-priced, which is indeed worth paying attention to for investors holding risk assets.

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FlashLoanLord

· 2025-12-22 08:43

Are interest rate cut expectations underestimated? This wave of data is really outrageous, it feels like the Fed is playing word games.

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 2025-12-21 18:14

Inflation data is playing new tricks again, this time it's hard to distinguish between true and false.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 2025-12-21 00:04

You don't believe the inflation data again? The Fed is really trying to scare us this time.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 2025-12-20 10:16

I don't even believe the inflation data is this low; they're definitely playing with the numbers again.

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4am_degen

· 2025-12-20 07:28

Data conflicts are really annoying, how can I keep playing?

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ArbitrageBot

· 2025-12-20 07:28

Data is playing tricks again, with the unemployment rate soaring wildly. Is it just another ploy to fool us into a rate cut?

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StableGenius

· 2025-12-20 07:28

nah, the inflation miss doesn't mean what everyone thinks it does—empirically speaking, fed's gonna surprise us anyway. as predicted, market's already pricing in too much dovishness lmao

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AlphaLeaker

· 2025-12-20 07:25

The data is so outrageous, I really can't believe it.

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RunWhenCut

· 2025-12-20 07:05

Inflation data is squeezing the toothpaste again... unemployment rate is rising, yet they still want to cut interest rates. How did this logic change?

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