There's an interesting idea. A well-known institution leader recently shared a perspective—assuming Bitcoin's average annual increase over the next 21 years is 21%, is that reasonable? He believes this expectation is actually plausible. The core logic is simple: as long as Bitcoin's long-term annualized growth rate can surpass the S&P 500, it’s worth considering from an asset allocation perspective.

Speaking of which, this view reflects the attitude of some institutional investors. They are not trading short-term market fluctuations but are looking at Bitcoin from a long-term asset allocation standpoint—treating it as an option that can outperform traditional financial assets. The 21% figure sounds aggressive, but over a longer time horizon, it’s not entirely unreasonable. After all, Bitcoin’s annualized return over the past decade or so has already far exceeded this level.

However, long-term investment returns depend on many variables—market cycles, policy environment, institutional adoption, and more. This number is more of a reasonable reference expectation rather than a guarantee.