#比特币价格技术面 After reviewing JPMorgan's latest report, several data points are worth noting:

**Technical Bottom Signals**: BTC has fallen from 120,000 to 82,000, a decline of over 30%, but JPM has lowered the production cost to $90,000, indicating that the current price is approaching the mining cost line. If prices hover below the production cost for a long time, it will trigger miners to exit → difficulty decreases → costs continue to decline in a self-reinforcing cycle, similar to the pattern seen in 2018.

**Key Monitoring Indicators**: Strategy's mNAV remains at 1.13, above the warning line of 1.0. This is important—once it drops below 1.0, there will be pressure to sell coins forcibly. Currently, with $1.4 billion in reserves as a buffer, short-term pressure is manageable.

**Catalyst Timeline**: The MSCI index decision on January 15 is an asymmetric catalyst point. If excluded, the negative impact has largely been digested from the October crash; if included, it could trigger a rebound. This timeframe is worth marking.

**Long-term Perspective**: Even with recent volatility, the target price of $170,000 based on volatility-adjusted gold anchoring models remains valid. Short-term technical pressure exists, but perpetual contract deleveraging is basically complete, indicating the market has already priced in some risks.

This is a good time to observe on-chain fund flows and whale position changes.