Last night, the crypto community exploded. A message flooded traders' phone screens — Nakamura Toyoaki, a policy review member of the Bank of Japan, publicly stated, "If inflation trends remain stable, rate cuts will be considered."

What seems like a calm official statement is actually a crucial turning point in the past two years of tightening cycles. Within just a few seconds, chat groups went from silence to frenzy. Everyone was asking the same question — is the "water tap" that once drained trillions of dollars in global liquidity now about to be turned on in reverse?

If this becomes a reality, it’s no small event. It signifies a dramatic shift in the global macro landscape. Looking back over the past 24 months, how fierce was the combination of yen appreciation + rate hikes: arbitrage trades forced to close, risk assets falling out of favor, and the era of cheap yen coming to an end. So once the rate cut expectations are confirmed, will it restart that familiar liquidity engine?

History always follows patterns. Rate cut initiation → Yen depreciation → Cross-border arbitrage reactivation → International capital seeking high yields and safe havens → Bitcoin and other risk assets gaining support. This logic has been terrifyingly effective each time the Bank of Japan shifted its stance.

However, we must calmly ask ourselves: is this an "emergency rate cut" driven by economic recession, or a proactive "stimulative rate cut" by policymakers? The market consequences of the two are completely different. The former might cause panic in the short term, while the latter is the long-term fuel that risk assets can thrive on. Savvy investors are not currently concerned with what KOLs are shouting, but are watching the direction of those complex machine gears behind every word from the central bank.