#数字资产市场洞察 FOLKS Recent Trends and These Issues

Let's start with the fundamentals: this coin has dropped from $48 to $6, and the community has long been in an uproar. Some question whether the project team coordinated token unlocks to orchestrate a pump-and-dump. The unlock schedule does exist — seed investors and the team will begin linear releases after the cliff period. More concerning is the on-chain distribution: the top 10 wallets hold 97.59% of the tokens, with the largest addresses controlling 93.98%. Such centralization means that once selling pressure appears, it could be catastrophic.

On the technical side, there are some interesting signals. Multiple timeframes are resonating: the 1-hour RSI is only 31.3, and the 4-hour RSI is even more extreme at 27.8, both in deep oversold territory. The daily ADX has surged to 65.5, indicating a strong downtrend. The current price of $4.109 is heavily suppressed by EMA12 ($10.997) and EMA26 ($11.416). Open interest on the futures contract is $29.7 million, up 2.33% in 24 hours, with a funding rate of +0.00125%, showing leveraged longs are overextended.

Liquidation risk is asymmetric — there are over 584,000 long orders stacked at the $3.71 level waiting to be liquidated, while only 20,000 short orders are above.

From a technical short-selling perspective: enter between $4.10-$4.20, set stop-loss at $4.40, and target near $3.80, close to the dense liquidation zone. The risk-reward ratio is 2.32:1, which, from a purely mathematical standpoint, is acceptable.