#大户持仓动态 The Bank of Japan's shoes have dropped, and an unexpected reversal has occurred!

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% as scheduled, hitting a 30-year high. Originally, the market was worried this would cause a sell-off, but once announced, it turned into a gift—the Nikkei 225 rose 1% that day, led by AI concept stocks, government bond yields remained above 2%, and the yen temporarily weakened before stabilizing. Why didn't this rate hike trigger panic?

The key lies in three points. First, the market had already fully priced in this expectation; a 100% rate hike was already factored in, so there was no surprise to trigger a sell-off. Capital was allocated in an orderly manner, avoiding the sudden unwind of carry trades that caused a crash last year. Second, although rates were raised, real interest rates are still negative. The central bank emphasizes "gradual normalization," with the economy recovering gently, wages rising, and consumption following suit. The third reason is even more crucial—Japan has finally shaken off deflation, and a cycle mechanism for wages and prices has been established. Governor Ueda and others have clearly stated that as long as data meets expectations, rate hikes will continue. What does this mean? It means the overall direction is stable.

From an asset allocation perspective, this wave of rate hikes in Japan opens up many opportunities. Bank dividend spreads widen, domestic demand stocks and tech stocks have explosive potential, and the Nikkei may hit new highs; the yen's moderate fluctuations benefit import companies, supporting stable corporate profits. Globally, carry trades have somewhat reversed but with limited scope, and Asian stock markets are actually being boosted.

In short, this is the spring of interest rate normalization. High-dividend stocks and domestically driven companies are just in time, with more room for imagination into 2026. The risk? It’s gradual and not abrupt. Spring has indeed arrived.