#数字资产市场洞察 Can Bitcoin break through 200,000? Arthur Hayes is bullish but reducing ETH holdings—what's his next move?

The latest Federal Reserve policy has been described by industry insider Arthur Hayes as a de facto QE. Against the backdrop of continuous fiat currency devaluation, Bitcoin may retest the $124,000 level, or even surge toward 200,000—this seems like a guaranteed bullish signal. The question is, yesterday Hayes transferred 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital. While he’s bullish, he’s also offloading. Is this a false alarm or a genuine retreat?

The market has torn open two cracks. Ample liquidity pushing up various assets is one line; covert transfer of funds by large players is another. Should retail investors believe the fundamentals or follow the money flow?

Hayes’ actions reveal a harsh reality—policy benefits are on the surface, but fund movements are the real underlying story. While retail investors cheer for 124,000, smart money has already started cashing out at the top. This isn’t a conspiracy; it’s the normal operation of the market.

One must beware of the deviation between expectations and reality. From a technical perspective, short-term fluctuations may oscillate between 80,000 and 100,000 USD. If RMP indeed evolves into QE, then 124,000 is just the starting point. But if fund movements go against public opinion, it’s crucial to take profits decisively rather than stubbornly holding on.

The crypto market is never a black-and-white game; it’s a battle between apparent good news and hidden liquidity. The safest approach? Keep an eye on the wallets of big players—that’s the most genuine indicator of value.