2025-12-20 02:10:23

#BTC资金流动性 The Bank of Japan has moved again, raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The news has been circulating for a while, but the market seems somewhat calm—this is what they call "selling the news."

The real trouble lies ahead. What does rising Japanese interest rates mean? Borrowing Japanese yen to trade cryptocurrencies will become more expensive, and funds relying on arbitrage might withdraw. There are many lessons from history: after Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin usually experiences a 20%-30% decline within 4 to 6 weeks.

Currently, Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart shows some signs of trying to stop falling, but the momentum is clearly insufficient. The $90,000 level is a tough threshold—both a psychological and technical level. Without a volume breakout here, market confidence won't truly recover, and continued weak consolidation is the most probable scenario.

What to watch next? January economic data. If the data is positive, the Fed's expectation of maintaining easing will be more stable, and a decent rebound could be expected. Conversely, if the data is poor, concerns about recession will dominate, and any rebound will be pushed further back.

The key support is at $83,680. The main focus is whether volume can increase. Pay more attention to institutional actions—especially the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs. If there are continuous net inflows for more than 3 days, or a single-day net inflow exceeds $500 million, it’s basically a signal that big institutions are re-entering, and a rebound catalyst is in place.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 12-20 02:39

Japan raises interest rates again, but this wave might not be so simple. The cost of borrowing Japanese Yen has increased, and arbitrage funds are likely to exit. The 90,000 level hasn't seen a volume breakout; a rebound is just nonsense. Continue to oscillate. Economic data is the real bombshell; the true picture will be revealed in January. The key still depends on the flow of institutional ETFs. Continuous net inflows are needed to prove that someone is truly taking over. If 83,680 cannot be held, a re-evaluation will be necessary.

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GasFeeSobber

· 12-20 02:36

Arbitrage funds have run away again, now it's time to watch economic data's face. The Japanese rate hike has already been digested, the real killer move is still to come. If you can't get 90,000, don't waste your time; without institutional entry signals, everything is just an illusion. Only a $500 million inflow can be considered meaningful; right now, it's just a harvest of leek-cutting. If 83,680 can't hold... let's wait a bit longer.

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GovernancePretender

· 12-20 02:34

The Bank of Japan needs to be cautious with every rate hike; I don't want to step into the same old trap again... Can we break through the 90,000 barrier? The firepower seems a bit weak. --- It's the same old script of yen arbitrage funds withdrawing. It feels like this decline might not be over yet. --- Watch the ETF flows; when institutions put real money in, that's the real signal. Everything else is just虚的. --- Is holding at 83,680 really that critical? It seems like every time they draw this line, it still gets broken. --- Waiting for January data? How long do we have to wait... I want to bottom fish in this market but I'm afraid to do so. What should I do? --- Only a volume breakout above 90,000 can be called a rebound; otherwise, it will just continue to stagnate and get trapped. --- Japan's quick interest rate move is another wave of leveraged positions, old套路. --- Will a daily net inflow of $500 million really happen? That's a bit uncertain. --- Historically, a 20%-30% decline is on the table. Can we outperform this time? Not very optimistic. --- The key is Bitcoin spot ETF funds; retail investors' money doesn't really matter.

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MoonMathMagic

· 12-20 02:28

Japan's rate hike this time, it feels like the market has already digested it... but the real killer is the subsequent withdrawal of arbitrage funds. If the 90,000 level can't be held, it's game over; it depends on whether ETFs can continue to see net inflows. Economic data is the key; if the Federal Reserve truly maintains easing, there is hope. --- The cost of trading cryptocurrencies with Yen has increased, retail investors are in trouble... Historical experience shows 20-30% declines are no joke. --- A rebound with insufficient momentum is meaningless; volume must increase to show true strength. --- Wait for the January data; this time, it might really depend on the Fed's stance... If a recession is coming, there’s no hope. --- 83,680 must be well defended; otherwise, a break below will directly lead to a breach. --- The capital flow in spot ETFs is the real indicator... When big institutions return to the market, the rebound will be more reliable.

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