#大户持仓动态 🔥The odds of the Federal Reserve maintaining the status quo in January have broken through 70%, and the outcome of this hand is pretty much a sure thing.

Latest market data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January is 73.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut has fallen to 26.6%. After three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed is now adopting a wait-and-see stance.

The logic behind this is actually quite complex. Although November's CPI data returned to the 2% range and looked promising, due to a partial government shutdown, the data itself is somewhat inflated, and many economists are dismissing it as not entirely reliable. As for employment, the non-farm payrolls look quite strong, but the unemployment rate has jumped to 4.6%, creating a mixed picture that makes the Fed a bit uncertain.

Even more dramatically, there are disagreements within the Fed. At the December policy meeting, three dissenting votes were cast—some wanted to cut by 50 basis points, while others insisted on holding steady. This level of division is the most serious since 2019. Powell previously said, "We will follow the data," but the employment data for December will only be released in early January, and that data will be the real guiding light for the January decision.

Another variable is the increasing rumors of a change in Fed Chair. Trump is actively seeking candidates and has explicitly called for "aggressive rate cuts." This convergence of policy considerations and political pressure makes the January rate decision highly uncertain.

For traders, the 73.4% probability suggests that maintaining the current stance is likely, but don’t let your guard down—current interest rates are actually higher than the market’s perceived neutral level. Officials like Goolsbee have also hinted at significant rate cuts next year. If economic data surprises to the downside, the balance could shift at any moment. Next, keep a close eye on the December non-farm payroll report, core inflation data, and developments regarding the Fed Chair candidate, as each piece of information could shake up the entire market pricing logic.

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