The current situation is like walking a tightrope on the edge of a cliff. On one side, global liquidity faces tightening pressures, and on the other, the "bomb" set by the Bank of Japan is about to explode. The market trend from tonight to tomorrow will very likely determine the rhythm of the market in the coming weeks.

Let's start with the most core fact: the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on December 18-19. The consensus on interest rate hikes in the market has become very firm—probability of a rate increase has soared to over 90%, with almost all institutions expecting a 25 basis point adjustment, which would push the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%. Compared to historical data, this would be the highest level since 1995. It may sound exaggerated, but the numbers speak for themselves.

Why is this so critical? Because for over thirty years, Japan has been playing the low-interest-rate game. Large amounts of capital borrow yen to buy high-yield assets globally—that's the famous "yen carry trade." Once interest rates rise, this game must end, and these funds will have to flow back into Japan to repay loans. The result is a concentrated liquidity withdrawal from global risk assets, with the crypto market being the first to feel the impact.

More importantly, this rate hike is not a sudden whim of the central bank. The data strongly supports it: Japan's latest quarterly short-term economic survey shows that confidence among large manufacturers has reached a four-year high, and wage growth is also quite strong. This indicates clear signals of Japan's economic recovery, giving the central bank the confidence to trigger this "rate hike." Therefore, the capital withdrawal pressure is not just a temporary shock but a process of ongoing release—this must be understood.

From another perspective, this also reflects a subtle shift in the macro environment. While the Federal Reserve is still observing, signals of tightening policies from global central banks are becoming increasingly clear. For the crypto market, the era of abundant liquidity is fading, and the depth and duration of this adjustment are worth close attention. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but for holders and potential buyers, understanding the underlying logic is the most important.