Will the new tax law in 2026 make the market a potential alternative to gambling taxes?

Question

【Crypto World】In 2026, a new tax law will take effect in the United States, which will change the investment decisions of many people. The law stipulates that “virtual” income generated from net losses in gambling will be subject to taxation, meaning that the tax burden for traditional gambling could significantly increase.

Against this backdrop, prediction markets are becoming an interesting alternative—they may offer more favorable tax treatment. A leading industry exchange has recently been active, promoting the implementation of prediction market services, engaging in deep cooperation with ecosystem partners, and seizing market opportunities.

But there are also issues. This exchange has filed three lawsuits against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), targeting regulatory agencies in Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut. The core dispute is: who should have regulatory authority over prediction markets? The exchange argues that the CFTC should have exclusive regulatory authority.

In other words, this is not just a commercial competition but also a battle for the rule-making power over the entire prediction market ecosystem. The policy window has opened, and market opportunities are emerging, but the regulatory landscape is still in intense collision.

LeekCutter · Accepted Answer

Here comes another "Compliance" excuse, to put it bluntly, they just want to bypass local regulations and find loopholes.

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Wait, can prediction markets really avoid taxes? It feels like a new trick to play people for suckers.

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CFTC exclusive rights? Ha, in the end, it won&#39;t be us retail investors who benefit.

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As soon as the tax law is changed, there’s a new business opportunity; I&#39;m too familiar with this trick.

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So ultimately, they still want to use the name of prediction markets to engage in gambling, right?

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Three lawsuits filed simultaneously, this move is indeed aggressive, but I wonder who will have the final say.

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Don&#39;t be fooled by "tax optimization," be careful, it might just be another case of the scythe turning back.

ponzi_poet · Answer

Haha, I&#39;ve seen this trap before, first grab land and then play the regulatory card, a classic play people for suckers technique.

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Wait, can just changing the name of gambling really reduce taxes? The IRS can&#39;t be that foolish, right?

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The prediction market is getting hot, and states are going to clash again; CFTC can&#39;t please everyone no matter how they choose.

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What is this exchange thinking? Expanding business while fighting three lawsuits, they really have spare money.

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To put it bluntly, they just want to avoid taxes, same soup but different medicine; the tax department will catch up sooner or later.

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The essence of the prediction market is still gambling; changing the shell grants tax benefits? I don&#39;t quite believe that.

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I just want to know if I should go all in on the prediction market now, while the tax law hasn&#39;t taken effect.

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Is this leading exchange testing the bottom line of regulation?

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The 2026 tax law will have to change again, American policy seems to follow the wind.

PonziDetector · Answer

Haha, this operation is really amazing. Under the banner of "tax optimization", is it actually trying to evade regulation?

With lawsuits and runway grabbing, it feels like they are betting on whether the CFTC will protect them...

If the prediction market really becomes an alternative to gambling, the ones getting hurt will still be the suckers.

AlgoAlchemist · Answer

Is there a new trick to cut leeks again? First they say the tax law has changed, then they come up with a prediction market savior, same old routine.

The tax substitution plan sounds ridiculous, 2026 is still far away, who knows what they will do over in the US.

CFTC is filing lawsuits, honestly it's just to avoid state-level regulation and make it easier to cut leeks.

This exchange is really idle, busy with business on one side and lawsuits on the other, they have so much money they don't know where to spend it.

I don't know if the prediction market will be popular, but with all this regulatory authority dispute, the risk is actually even greater, right?

degenonymous · Answer

Ah, once again it's about tax laws and lawsuits. Basically, it's just paving the way for themselves.

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Regarding the prediction market, it still feels immature. Betting now is too early.

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Wait, this exchange is involved in three lawsuits here. They really just want to monopolize regulatory authority.

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Honestly, gamblers wouldn't switch to prediction markets just because of taxes. That logic is a bit far-fetched.

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Will the 2026 tax reform really happen? Now I have to recalculate everything.

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CFTC vs. State Governments, whoever wins this round gets the benefits. Let's watch.

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Can prediction markets replace gambling? Uh, I don't believe so.

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It's both taxes and regulation, making it feel like a political struggle.

wagmi_eventually · Answer

Ha, both tax laws and prediction markets—America is really playing with fire... These exchanges are just trying to find loopholes; the so-called compliance sounds nice, but they actually just want to evade regulation.

With such aggressive lawsuits, it seems there’s really profit to be made.

But honestly, how long the prediction market can survive is really uncertain; who will have the final say on regulatory authority is still unresolved.

It feels like these people are playing chess here, and we, the retail investors, are just waiting to be harvested...

Forget it, I’ll just keep holding. Anyway, no matter how the laws change, I still have to pay taxes, so I might as well pretend I didn’t see anything.

This definition of "virtual income" is really outrageous—who would have thought of this move?

BlockTalk · Answer

Does gambling turn into virtual income that needs to be taxed? Ha, that's a really crazy way of thinking... So what exactly is a prediction market? Arbitrage or gambling? The exchange is quite clever; they first fight for regulatory power, and anyway, by the time the tax authorities catch on, it's already too late.

ThreeHornBlasts · Answer

This wave of tax law reforms is really pushing people toward prediction markets... But to be honest, the lawsuits that exchanges are currently fighting are ultimately about trying to seize regulatory authority to avoid stricter restrictions, a classic case of "regulate myself" haha

Will the new tax law in 2026 make the market a potential alternative to gambling taxes?

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