The recent performance of the crypto market has been somewhat baffling. From a technical perspective, Ethereum has indeed formed an expanding triangle, and it even broke out — according to textbook theory, this should be a classic bearish signal. At this moment, the technical sentiment is at its most pessimistic.

Theoretically speaking, such a pattern should make shorting the "correct" choice. But interestingly, some micro signs in the market are sending a different signal. Although lacking confidence, multiple clues point to the possibility that the bottom may really be near.

The reality is quite harsh. Just after making this judgment, the market surged wildly. I once thought my prediction was validated, only to see it sharply reverse again in the middle of the night. Today, it rebounded once more. This kind of movement — rise, fall, then rise again — the underlying trading logic behind it is truly ruthless.

Particularly noteworthy is that wave last night. Against the backdrop of a clear strength in the US stock market, crypto was forcibly pushed from a significant rise down below the waterline. The ferocity of this contrarian move is indeed rare.

From a logical deduction: if the market continues to make new lows significantly, then the current manipulation by the big players makes no sense at all. Unless there are other cards to play. My judgment is that this is very likely the bottom. Of course, the market sometimes just proves you wrong — if you get hit, you stand up straight.