- Technical Analysis of Bitcoin 2026: The Long-Term Bullish Structure Remains Intact:

The weekly Bitcoin chart shows strong performance but volatility in 2025, characterized by notable quarterly fluctuations. Bitcoin opened the year at $93,576, reaching an all-time high of $109,588 on January 20, immediately after Trump’s inauguration, surpassing the previous year's high of $108,353.

However, Bitcoin failed to maintain its upward momentum and declined by 32%, reaching its lowest annual level of $74,508 in early April during the second quarter.

During the second and third quarters, Bitcoin recorded a series of higher highs and higher lows, trading above the key 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) and reaching an all-time high of $126,199 on October 6.

In the last quarter, Bitcoin failed to sustain its bullish momentum, indicating exhaustion of the trend amid profit-taking.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around the $85,000-$86,000 range, just above key support zones: the upward trendline (drawn by connecting multiple lows since October 2023), the 100-week exponential moving average at $85,732, and the yearly low at $74,508. These zones serve as critical demand areas, preventing a sharp decline in price so far.

Conversely, immediate resistance levels are the yearly opening price at $93,576 and the 2024 high at $108,353, which are currently major resistance zones limiting recovery attempts. Meanwhile, declining trading volume during the current pullback suggests selling pressure is easing rather than accelerating, indicating consolidation rather than a full trend reversal by the end of the year and the start of Q1 2026.

The overall market structure of Bitcoin indicates a healthy correction within a broader bullish cycle, unless Bitcoin closes below the annual low of $74,508, which could extend the correction to the next support level at $66,783, the 200-week exponential moving average.

Although short-term momentum remains weak, maintaining support above the mentioned zones keeps the long-term bullish structure intact, and the next major move is likely to depend on breaking through the $100,000 to $108,000 zone before rising toward the all-time high of $126,199.

Weekly Chart of BTC/USDT Pair

A report from Copper Research expressed optimism about Bitcoin. The report states that the four-year Bitcoin cycle has not ended but has been replaced. Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has shown recurring return cycles based on cost basis, as illustrated in the chart below.

Fadi Abu Al-Ala, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet: "Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin’s price has moved in repeated micro-cycles, retracing to the cost basis and then rebounding by about 70%. Currently trading near the $84,000 cost basis, this pattern indicates a move above $140,000 over the next 180 days. If the cost basis increases by 10-15% as in previous cycles, the resulting premium observed at previous peaks produces a target range between $138,000 and $148,000."

Comparison between Bitcoin/USD price and ETF price. Source: Copper Research