Duan Yongping once said something that I’ve always found particularly valuable:

“I always assume that the market is extremely smart most of the time,
unless I find that the market is truly wrong.”

At first glance, this statement seems very humble,
but in reality, it’s quite bold.

Because its premise is:
You need to have the ability to judge: When is the market truly wrong?

Most people's problem is exactly the opposite:
A loss makes them default to:
The market is stupid,
The big players are bad,
The world is against me.

And those who truly make money in the long run,
Their first reaction is always:
Could I have misunderstood?

The market is the result of a game among countless smart people,
Institutions, capital, information, emotions.

If you casually think it’s “wrong,”
Chances are it’s not the market that’s wrong,
It’s that you’re standing too low.

So, the core of Duan Yongping’s statement is not “going along with the market,”
But:
Before you have extremely strong certainty,
You must maintain reverence for the market.

Only when you:
• Have significantly more complete information than the market
• Have logic that is clearly more solid than the market
• Have a time cycle that is significantly longer than the market

Can you say:
“This time, the market is wrong.”

And such opportunities
May only come a few times in a lifetime.

It is precisely because of this,
That true experts do not frequently make moves.
They prefer to hold their position long-term, not move,
And are unwilling to gamble with the market every day.

So, the practical meaning of this statement is:
• Most of the time, don’t be overconfident
• Occasionally, dare to hold a heavy position
• Very rarely, go all-in

This is not conservatism,
It’s a clear understanding of probabilities and cognitive boundaries.

The market never rewards emotions,
Only rewards those who,
At the right time,
In the right place,
Do the right things.