Daily Market Analysis — BTC

Previously, the points indicated both bullish and bearish signals, and the trend aligned with expectations. The current price movement framework remains within the range of the box pattern repeatedly mentioned over the past 5 weeks, with the overall macro strategy unchanged.

From the weekly and monthly K-line perspectives, the price is still in a state where it first broke below the upward trend line that began in 2023. The decline has not been fully realized, but there is an expectation of a rebound upward to confirm the trend line and the neckline of the pattern in the confluence area.

This upward expectation requires buying during internal retracements and strategic play; during a direct rise without breaking through the current horizontal upper boundary, chasing is not advised. This calls for referencing daily and lower timeframes for guidance.

From the daily chart, support at the lower boundary of the box and the lower boundary of the downtrend channel provides important theoretical support for this week's low buys. We have repeatedly achieved results based on this. Yesterday’s article provided a comprehensive analysis of the box pattern itself and its relationship within the overall market context; please review it.

From the 4H and lower timeframes, which involve intraday trading, today’s trend is similar to that of the past two days. The price is on the side of a rebound in a bearish context. Before volume breaks out, we need to watch out for the possibility of a rally during the day followed by a full retracement at night. Additionally, nearby support levels are weakening and should be monitored.

Since the larger structure has not changed, recent articles have been more theoretical and filling in gaps. Therefore, review previous posts, especially yesterday’s content (points and ideas), and incorporate them into your analysis.

Currently, the price is within the divergence phase’s selling pressure zone. Do not chase upward. Reference levels are from the current price to 89250~89777 (no action), second resistance at 92540~94150 (use 4HMA250 for reference), aggressive support at 85550~85000 (monitor and act), short-term support at 83540~82650.

Other major order levels remain unchanged; no need to cancel.