#美国经济指标和通胀趋势 By analyzing leading economic indicators in the United States, I have noticed some noteworthy trends. The ratio of leading to coincident economic indicators has fallen to 0.85, a new low since 2008, and has declined for four consecutive years. This indicator combines forward-looking data such as consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders, and is often seen as a barometer of economic direction.

Historical data shows that whenever this ratio experiences such a significant decline, the U.S. economy is often already in recession. Although current employment data and other coincident indicators remain relatively stable, the continued deterioration of forward-looking indicators is concerning.

Investors are advised to closely monitor economic data in the coming months, especially changes in the labor market and consumer spending. At the same time, be alert to the possibility that the Federal Reserve may adjust its monetary policy stance due to economic downturn risks, which could have a significant impact on asset prices. In terms of investment strategy, it may be prudent to consider increasing the allocation of defensive assets.