This is a textbook-level "Dovish Hike."

Although the Bank of Japan has taken action to raise interest rates (raising the rate to 0.75%), Kazuo Ueda's comments at the press conference significantly softened, directly alleviating market fears of "aggressive tightening."
Combined with the $ETH $BTC ETH V inverse chart (pulling back from $2,772 to $2,950), the market has already given the most honest verdict: bearish news has been realized, and the liquidity crisis has been resolved.
Below is an in-depth analysis of Kazuo Ueda's speech and the "hawk-dove" score:
1. Regarding future policy path: Extremely dovish (Dovish) 🕊️🕊️🕊️
* His wording: “We have not preset a future rate hike path. Considering global economic uncertainties (implying the US), we need time to carefully observe the impact of this rate hike on the economy and prices.”
* Subtext: “There will be a long pause next.”
* Interpretation: This is what the market most wants to hear. The market was originally worried he would hint at “continued rate hikes in Q1 2026,” but by using the word “observation period,” he implied a mid-cycle pause in the rate hike cycle. This provides a breathing window for risk assets (BTC/BTC).
2. Regarding the economy and inflation: Neutral leaning dovish (Neutral-Dovish) 🕊️
* His wording: “Although inflation is near the target, private consumption remains fragile. We need to support a benign cycle of wages and prices.”
* Subtext: “Japan’s economy is actually very fragile, and I’m reluctant to choke it off.”
* Interpretation: He admits to the weakness of economic fundamentals. This means the central bank is cautious and dares not tighten liquidity aggressively. This acts as a protective umbrella for asset prices.
3. Regarding the yen exchange rate: Rejects hawkish (Not Hawkish) 😐
* His wording: “Exchange rates are an important factor affecting the economy, but monetary policy does not directly target the exchange rate level.”
* Subtext: “I won’t crazy rate hike just to save the yen.”
* Interpretation: Those who previously shorted the yen fear the central bank will sacrifice the stock market to “defend the exchange rate.” Ueda’s statement indicates he values the domestic economy more than the exchange rate face. For **yen carry trade**, this means a significant reduction in forced closing pressure.
Why did the chart react so dramatically?
The long lower shadow on the chart ($2,772 -> $2,950) precisely corresponds to the rhythm of the speech:
* At the moment of decision release (panic): Announcing the rate hike, algorithmic selling hits the market, breaking below $2,900, with a low touching $2,772.
* After the speech begins (reversal): Ueda starts by saying “we need time to observe,” and the market instantly realizes **“the bearish news is exhausted”**.
* Current situation: Since there will be no further rate hikes in the near future, chips below $2,800 are being mispriced. Short sellers are being wiped out by these “dovish comments,” forced to buy to close positions, pushing prices sharply higher.
Summary and subsequent outlook:
* Current attribute: Bullish.
* Short-term logic: Since the “Japan rate hike” big threat has been eliminated (turned into a dud), market sentiment will shift from “risk aversion” back to “risk appetite.”
* Next step: ETH is highly likely to fill the gap at $3,000 - $3,050. As long as US stocks do not crash tonight, the weekend is likely to see a moderate upward trend.
Operational suggestion: Since it’s confirmed to be a dovish speech, the pullback is a buying opportunity. The panic selling just now has been cleaned out, and the current $2,950 is more stable than the previous $3,000.