Worse ahead? Analysts warn of the absence of a "final capitulation" of Bitcoin - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, future

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![Неужели ралли биткоина завершилось раньше времени_ bitcoin crypto bear market медвежий рынок](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-0e996c60d126bfc84abd492b1ef51ba0)# Is the worst yet to come? Analysts warn of the absence of a "final capitulation" for BitcoinThe market valuation of the first cryptocurrency lags behind actual network activity, and the search for a bottom has not yet been completed. These conclusions were reached by experts from the Checkonchain platform and analyst MorenoDV.According to researchers, 38% of the digital gold supply is in unrealized loss. The scale of losses is comparable to mid-2021 levels.> Bitcoin is currently hammering out a bottom, but the process is far from over.  >   > — 38% of supply currently underwater  > — On-chain losses similar to mid-2021 "bull killer" levels  > — $81k  marks the average ETF inflow cost basis & True Market Mean  > — True capitulation event still… pic.twitter.com/ml2aI1gxrJ> > — \_Checkonchain (@\_checkonchain) December 19, 2025An important level identified by experts is the $81  mark. It corresponds to the average purchase price for spot Bitcoin ETFs and the True Market Mean. Analysts emphasized that there is still no sign of final investor capitulation in the market.MorenoDV pointed out the NVT Golden Cross indicator, which assesses the network’s valuation relative to transaction volume. This is an analog of the classic P/E ratio, where the company's earnings are replaced by economic activity on the blockchain.> Bitcoin’s Valuation Reset Is Happening Again  >   > “The present setup points to a market transitioning from deep undervaluation toward equilibrium, a phase historically associated with accumulation.” – By @MorenoDV\_   >   > Read More ⤵️https://t.co/2o9AUUKN2k pic.twitter.com/kPGrGnak4E> > — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant\_com) December 19, 2025Previously, the indicator fell to -0.58. The level indicated not so much market pessimism as fundamental undervaluation of the asset. Currently, the value has risen to -0.32.According to the analyst, prices are gradually aligning with the metrics, but Bitcoin still trades at a discount. The market is moving from deep oversold conditions toward equilibrium — a phase that historically involves active accumulation of positions.Recall that the head of the K33 Research research department, Vetle Lunde, stated that long-term Bitcoin holders have almost completed the active selling phase.