12/19 Market Trend Analysis

Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to rebound yesterday, falling overnight and ultimately breaking below the 85,000 support level, with the lowest touching 84,400. Currently, prices are fluctuating near 88,000, which is widely regarded as a "key turning point" area. The outcome of the battle between bulls and bears in this zone will directly influence whether the market rebounds toward 90,000 USD or probes deeper for support.
Ethereum's trend remains weaker than Bitcoin. The price not only lost the 2,900 level but also briefly fell below 2,800. Currently, 2,900 has shifted from support to a strong resistance level for recent rebounds. Bulls are organizing defense around 2,800, but buying momentum appears hesitant.
The 84,000-85,000 range has become Bitcoin's "Maginot Line." The daily structure of Bitcoin is facing a severe test. The previous oscillation zone's lower boundary support has turned into resistance, with focus shifting to a more critical long-term support band. The 84,000-85,000 zone is no longer just ordinary support but the market's short-term life and death line. If this area can hold, Bitcoin may still maintain the potential for a structural rebound, with resistance targeting the 90,000-92,000 zone. This area also corresponds to historically high trading volume nodes that have effectively absorbed selling pressure before.
Ethereum's retreat to 2,800 makes the rebound path more challenging. Its technical structure is more fragile, having retreated to the lower boundary of recent trading ranges, urgently needing to stabilize.
From indicators, Ethereum's stochastic indicator has entered a severely oversold region (with %K as low as 6.78), which usually signals a potential short-term rebound brewing. However, the overall trend is still dominated by a "strong sell" signal, with moving averages in a bearish alignment.
The stringent condition for a rebound: any effective rebound in Ethereum must first regain the 2,900 level, then break through the resistance cluster at 3,050-3,080 (which includes the 20-day and 26-day moving averages). In the medium term, only reclaiming 3,350 can reverse the current downtrend.
At the moment of tide turning, the greatest risk is not the waves themselves but misjudging the direction and strength of the tide. Today's early morning spike and pullback cast a shadow over the market. But this is not the end of the story; it is a prelude to the climax. The actions of the Bank of Japan will directly reveal the next move of the global liquidity tide. $BTC #ETH走势分析