JPMorgan Reiterates No Trillion-Dollar Stablecoin Market by 2028 – Projects $500–$600 Billion Instead

In a research report published on December 18, 2025, JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, reiterated their skeptical outlook on stablecoin growth, forecasting the total market capitalization to reach only $500–$600 billion by 2028—far below the trillion-dollar levels predicted by some crypto optimists.

The bank argues that stablecoin demand remains tightly linked to cryptocurrency trading activity rather than breaking out into mainstream payments at scale. While acknowledging 2025’s ~$100 billion supply expansion (pushing the market above $300 billion), JPMorgan sees rising competition from tokenized bank deposits and potential central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as key constraints on explosive growth.

Why JPMorgan Sees Limited Stablecoin Upside

The analysts emphasize that stablecoins function primarily as trading tools within crypto ecosystems:

• Crypto-Centric Demand: Most issuance supports leveraged trading, DeFi yields, and on-chain speculation.
• Payments Growth Slow: Real-world adoption (remittances, merchant acceptance) remains niche.
• Competition Rising: Tokenized deposits from banks and CBDCs could capture payment volumes.
• Supply Concentration: 2025 growth dominated by Tether (USDT +$48B) and Circle (USDC +$34B).

This view contrasts with bullish forecasts from firms like Bernstein or Ark Invest, which envision stablecoins hitting $1–$3 trillion driven by global payments and dollar digitization.

• 2025 Growth: ~$100B added, market >$300B.
• 2028 Projection: $500–$600B (moderate expansion tied to crypto market cap).
• No Trillion Trigger: Lack of breakout beyond trading utility.

Stablecoin Market Reality in Late 2025

Stablecoins have indeed grown steadily:

• Total Market Cap: Exceeded $300 billion.
• Dominance: USDT and USDC account for the vast majority of new supply.
• Use Cases: Primarily crypto trading, DeFi collateral, cross-border transfers in emerging markets.

However, mainstream penetration remains limited compared to traditional payment rails like Visa or Swift.

• Trading Link: Volume correlates strongly with crypto bull/bear cycles.
• Regulatory Context: U.S. GENIUS Act progress could favor bank-issued alternatives.
• CBDC Threat: Multiple countries exploring digital fiat to retain monetary control.

Implications for Stablecoins and Crypto in 2026–2028

JPMorgan’s tempered forecast suggests:

• Moderate Growth: Stablecoins expand with crypto adoption but not independently.
• Competitive Pressure: Banks entering via tokenized deposits (e.g., JPM Coin pilots).
• Utility Cap: Payments growth offset by alternatives.
• Investment View: Less explosive than RWA or AI narratives.

This balanced perspective tempers hype while acknowledging stablecoins’ entrenched role in crypto infrastructure.

In summary, JPMorgan’s December 18, 2025, report maintains a conservative $500–$600 billion forecast for stablecoin market cap by 2028, citing persistent ties to crypto trading and emerging competition from tokenized deposits and CBDCs. With 2025 growth of ~$100 billion led by USDT and USDC, the bank sees no path to trillion-dollar scale in the near term. For the latest stablecoin market cap updates and regulatory developments, monitor reliable trackers and official reports—approaching growth projections with balanced analysis in the evolving digital asset landscape.