December 19, 2025 Report

Yesterday, the United States announced November's CPI data, with core CPI at only 2.6%, significantly below market expectations. This is also the lowest level since 2021, which is favorable for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates.

CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates in January has risen to 27.7%.

After the data was released, the US stock market rebounded, with the S&P and Nasdaq indices almost recovering all of the previous day's losses.

However, BTC experienced a rise followed by a fall, hitting a high of $90,000 before dropping back to around $85,000.

This indicates that during periods of low liquidity, investor confidence in the crypto market remains insufficient.

The main reasons are the inertia of the four-year halving cycle, combined with some large holders being bearish, and short-term trapped investors selling off at a loss, creating selling pressure.

Additionally, because the coin prices are low, MicroStrategy's coin holdings and listed companies' financing capabilities are limited, and market expectations for the future are not strong enough, leading to a lag in buying volume.

From the perspective of chip structure, currently, mainly short-term holders are selling, while investors trapped at high levels are not exerting much selling pressure. BTC is building a bottom between $83,000 and $88,000.

ETF data also shows that BTC saw inflows of $457 million on December 17, ending two consecutive days of net outflows.

Next, attention should be on the Bank of Japan's interest rate adjustment on Friday. The 25 basis point rate hike is almost certain, which is a bearish signal, but the market has already priced it in, so the impact should not be too significant.

The key is whether the Bank of Japan will signal a continued rate hike, which will influence short-term market sentiment and prices.