Gold on Track to Surpass $5,000 per Ounce: Deutsche Bank Analysis

Deutsche Bank, a financial institution, has presented a comprehensive analysis of the future trajectory of the gold market, projecting that this precious metal will reach unprecedented levels in the coming years. Analyst Michael Hsueh anticipates that gold could approach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, subsequently consolidating above that psychological threshold during 2027.

Bullish Revision of Gold Projections

Michael Hsueh significantly increased his estimates in a recently released report. The forecast for the average gold price in 2026 was raised from $4,000 to $4,450 per ounce, while for 2027 he set an ambitious target of $5,150 per ounce. These forecasts reflect renewed confidence in the bullish trajectory of the yellow metal, considering the persistence of long-term fundamental factors.

The specialist notes that once speculative positions in the market normalize, two forces will continue to drive demand: sustained acquisition by global central banks and the reactivation of capital inflows into exchange-traded funds focused on this asset. This scenario could push the gold price to $4,950 per ounce during 2026.

Atypical Behavior of Gold in 2025

Despite recent corrections, where prices depreciated approximately 10% from their October high, gold has recovered half of those losses. Most notably, this behavior challenges established historical patterns. The volatility experienced during 2025 reached its highest level since 1980, highlighting the intensity of movements in this market.

Hsueh emphasizes a crucial factor: the exceptional performance of gold cannot be solely attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar, making it particularly significant. Concerns about global inflation, erosion of national currencies, and international debt accumulation have historically been the main catalysts for gold prices reaching new highs.

Official Institutional Demand as the Main Driver

Global central banks continue to demonstrate “official” and structured demand for gold. During the third quarter of the previous year, these institutions acquired 220 tons of gold, marking the third-highest figure ever recorded. What’s surprising is that these volumes significantly exceeded the purchases of the second quarter, despite prices already being at historically high levels.

A central bank manager expressed a revealing perspective, considering gold as the “last refuge against extreme risks of black swan events.” This position reinforces the trend of diversifying international reserves into assets with protective characteristics against systemic uncertainties.

Recovery of Flows in Specialized Funds

Exchange-traded funds tracking gold have experienced a significant transformation. After four consecutive years of capital outflows, in 2025 these instruments registered net inflows, indicating a change in the behavior of retail and institutional investors.

According to Hsueh, the pattern of daily fluctuations in current net purchases and sales suggests that the recent profit-taking phase may be coming to an end. The analyst remains confident that the support level at $3,900 per ounce will hold firm, providing a floor for future appreciation.

Seasonal Outlook and Limited Supply

The beginning of the year typically presents the strongest phase for seasonal gold performance. Historical data from the last 20 to 30 years consistently show that this metal experiences positive growth month after month during January and February, suggesting that the coming year could benefit from these seasonal dynamics.

On the supply side, Hsueh estimates that global gold production will reach 3,693 tons during 2025, projecting 3,715 tons for the following year. These figures reveal a limited supply response to high prices, supporting the perspective that demand will continue to outpace the availability of this asset in global markets.