Dogecoin has been quite volatile these days, continuing to decline on Thursday. After dropping 4% in the previous trading day, it was hit again today. On-chain data is quite interesting—large holders are quietly reducing their positions. According to Santiment's statistics, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE currently hold a total of 34.77 billion DOGE. Compared to 36.14 billion on December 1, that's a significant decrease. The proportion of holdings by this group is also reversing, dropping from a peak of 53.95% on December 3 to 50.70% now. Especially on December 10, they offloaded over 1 billion DOGE in one go. Although they later adopted a wait-and-see approach, the outflow of funds is quite clear.

The derivatives market situation is even more straightforward. With the US CPI data released on Thursday and the upcoming central bank interest rate decision on Friday, the overall crypto market sentiment has become cautious, and DOGE is no exception. The bears are gaining strength. According to CoinGlass data, the proportion of short positions in DOGE derivatives jumped from 52.59% on Wednesday to 53.91%, clearly favoring the bears. Another detail: in the past 24 hours, liquidations of long positions exceeded $5 million, indicating that selling pressure is indeed intensifying.

From a technical perspective, DOGE has broken below its April lows, reinforcing the downward trend. The target for the bears seems quite clear—$0.1000. If this level is broken, support levels will need to be found further down. Retail enthusiasm has also noticeably cooled off, with on-chain demand and retail sentiment weakening simultaneously. This often signals a period of calm before a rebound.