The Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut this time, why is BTC under pressure? Understand one sentence and you'll get it.

Question

Last night, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the market now presents an interesting scene: many investors initially thought this was a bullish signal for crypto assets, only to see BTC fall in response. The truth behind this is not in the words “interest rate cut,” but in the key statement from the Federal Reserve’s meeting:

“Inflation remains uncertain, so only one rate cut is expected in 2026.”

This single sentence is the core driver of last night’s market volatility.

Expectations Management is the Real “Fuel” of the Market

The entire market’s previous imagination was like this: the Fed remains dovish next year → liquidity flows back significantly → crypto assets enter an upward cycle → BTC and ETH experience strong surges.

But the Fed’s statement “only one rate cut next year” directly shattered this expectation:

The pace of rate cuts is much lower than expected
Bullish optimism for next year is broken
Funds that had been pre-positioned start to take profits

This reminds us of an important rule: good news itself is not necessarily good; good news that exceeds expectations is truly good. Conversely, if expectations are already fully reflected in prices, realization can trigger adjustments.

Internal Disagreements within the Policy are the Real Hidden Concerns

It’s worth noting that the Fed had 3 dissenting votes this time, with some members even advocating for a pause in rate cuts. What does this reflect?

The Fed’s vigilance on inflation has clearly increased.

As long as the Fed remains concerned about a resurgence of inflation, it will be difficult for crypto assets to realize a “one-sided skyrocketing” scenario:

→ High-volatility assets are no longer safe havens
→ Institutional funds shift to conservative allocations
→ Long-term risk assets face ongoing pressure

From another perspective, the Fed’s cautious attitude is precisely the fundamental reason for recent pressure on the crypto market.

Future Logic for BTC’s Trend

Despite increased short-term volatility, the long-term structural logic remains unchanged:

✔ The Fed cannot tighten infinitely (the economy cannot bear it)
✔ Global institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to grow
✔ ETFs and regulatory policies are gradually “accepting” crypto assets
✔ Central banks around the world are continuously accumulating BTC as a strategic asset

Simply put: short-term is oscillation, long-term is steady upward movement. The current adjustment is not a bear market signal but an emotional fluctuation on the eve of a bull market.

How Should Investors Respond

Smart capital has long seen through this—when expectation gaps appear, they pre-position, and when the facts materialize, they quickly reduce holdings. This explains why “good news” can trigger declines.

For ordinary investors, a few suggestions:

Don’t be led by short-term news volatility
The trend hasn’t changed; only the rhythm is adjusting
Oscillation periods are both risk periods and the best times to build positions
Avoid chasing highs and selling lows; patiently wait for the next real expectation gap

Remember this rhythm: the market always first rises on expectations, then on facts, and finally follows the trend. Those who can anticipate the Fed’s policy logic early will be able to grasp the next opportunity in crypto assets ahead of others.