RBA may signal rate hikes by February 2026, says UBS

According to a report by Jinjing Data, UBS economist George Tharenou recently expressed the view that whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will assess the interest rate hike policy at the upcoming quarterly meeting will become an important reference indicator for the market.

UBS research team pointed out in the latest report that the RBA is expected to signal a rate hike in the quarterly decision in February 2026. The economist believes that as Australia’s inflation situation evolves, the central bank may take action to raise interest rates before the end of next year, marking a critical moment for the beginning of a shift in Australia’s monetary policy.

Industry analysts believe that the RBA’s stance at this decision meeting is quite crucial. If the central bank begins to mention the possibility of a rate hike in public communication, it will indicate a shift in policy stance. UBS’s judgment this time is based on an in-depth analysis of Australia’s economic data and inflation trends, with the February time window seen as an important point where the central bank may start preparing the market expectations.

Analysts point out that investors need to closely monitor every decision and statement from the RBA, as any hints about the path of interest rate hikes could trigger chain reactions in the Australian dollar and Australian stocks.