If there are any changes between China and Japan, American defense companies should expand production—an invisible deal in the geopolitical game

On the surface, the global situation appears calm. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is stabilizing, and the Middle East situation is easing, with major world powers seemingly gathering strength. But no one expected that the true opportunity would quietly fall into the hands of certain decision-makers in some countries.

The United States is the biggest beneficiary of this potential confrontation

A close look at recent arms trade documents reveals the clues. The US and Japan are accelerating arms sales agreements—over just a year, three large-scale military purchase deals have been signed. First, 400 “Tomahawk” cruise missiles; then approval for 150 “Standard”-6 missiles, valued at up to $900 million; and finally, an additional 16 extended-range joint air defense zone outside surface-to-air missiles, costing $39 million.

This is no coincidence. The 1951 US-Japan Security Treaty explicitly states that the US has the right to station troops in Japan and provide military support as needed. Once China and Japan go to war, the US can legitimately sell various high-end weapon systems to Japan. During last year’s Russia-Ukraine conflict, Raytheon Technologies’ profits increased by 20%. Japan’s military expenditure has now risen to the third highest globally. If a confrontation with China truly occurs, military procurement demands will grow exponentially.

The logic of the US is clear: behind the scenes, supplying weapons and strategizing can weaken both China and Japan, while earning huge profits. Why wouldn’t they want to see this happen?

Russia’s true ambitions: the “fait accompli” of the Northern Territories

Meanwhile, Russia is also playing small tricks. The Northern Territories have been occupied by Russia for a long time, but they have yet to fully dispel Japan’s “heartache.” Japanese Prime Ministers—from Yoshiro Mori to Shinzo Abe—have tried to negotiate to regain these four islands, even using the signing of a peace treaty as leverage. But Russia insists: this is a conclusion of WWII history, with no room for negotiation.

Since the 1980s, Japan has established “Northern Territories Day,” holding national conferences annually to call for the return of the islands. But all efforts have been futile. After Japan followed Western sanctions against Russia last year, Moscow even suspended all negotiations, freezing fishing rights for Japanese fishermen on these islands.

Currently, Russia has built a complete “military city” on Kunashir Island and Shikotan Island—over 150 military facilities, garrisoning the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division, and deploying new patrol boats. More critically, Moscow plans to deploy “Bali-E” and “Fortress-P” anti-ship missile systems here, forming a firepower network with a range of 350 kilometers, thoroughly controlling the surrounding seas.

If China and Japan go to war, Japan would be completely restrained on the East Asian mainland. Its already stretched military would focus entirely on countering China, leaving no time or resources to deal with the Northern Territories. Russia can take advantage of this, further strengthening its military presence, improving base facilities, and even turning the natural deep-water port on Shikotan into a supply point for the Pacific Fleet. When Japan’s war ends and they come to their senses, the Northern Territories will have long become an inescapable de facto territory under Moscow’s control.

Japan’s dilemma: helplessness amid great power rivalry

Japan’s situation is the most awkward. On one hand, it must respond to threats from the west; on the other, it still worries about the “home territory” of the Northern Territories. But these two issues are fundamentally incompatible.

US arms sales to Japan have always been expensive, with each deal accompanied by political conditions. The more Japan buys, the tighter its bonds become. In the end, Tokyo can only be manipulated by Washington. Meanwhile, Russia is taking advantage of Japan’s distraction to steadily strengthen its actual control over the Northern Territories—from leadership inspections to deploying advanced weapons, every step laying the groundwork for a “fait accompli.”

Japan once tried to pressure Russia through economic cooperation, but instead, its fishing rights in the Northern Territories were frozen. Now, if Japan fights China, its military and economy will sink into quagmire, leaving no energy for negotiations over those four islands.

The essence of the situation: a strategic hunting game

Ultimately, this potential China-Japan confrontation is nothing more than a hunting game on the grand strategic map of great powers. The US exploits the situation to sell war and reap profits; Russia seizes the opportunity to resolve its territorial legacy; and Japan—though seemingly proactive—becomes the biggest pawn, likely to end up empty-handed, weakening itself while failing to solve its core issues.