How can investors buy Bitcoin dynamics: do historical cycles still remain relevant?

Why Future Bear Markets May Differ Significantly from Past Ones

Over the years, Bitcoin’s price has been closely tied to the four-year halving cycle — an event that periodically reduces mining rewards by approximately 50% every four years. This reduction in supply traditionally triggered sharp price increases followed by significant corrections. However, the current market architecture has changed substantially, raising questions about whether future bear markets will follow historical patterns.

No one denies that halving has been a reliable basis for forecasting. Yet, several factors challenge its continued dominance in the market.

Institutional Players Are Changing the Rules of the Game

The entry of large investors has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s buying and selling dynamics. Unlike retail traders, who tend to make emotional decisions, institutional portfolios adhere to long-term holding strategies. This has significantly reduced volatility, which was previously characteristic of the markets.

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has further accelerated this process. Successors can now gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements without direct ownership of the asset, creating new layers of stability in the market. These changes potentially diminish the impact of a single event — the halving — as a driver of price movements.

Macroeconomic Factors Are Displacing Pure Crypto Dynamics

Modern Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by the global economic situation rather than internal cryptocurrency mechanics. Analysts note that future bear markets may be more aligned with global economic downturns — recessions, changes in monetary and credit policies of central banks.

Some experts argue that Bitcoin’s price could become more correlated with traditional business cycles than with halving events. When investors avoid risky assets due to economic slowdown, Bitcoin may decline regardless of whether a halving has just occurred.

Remnants of Past Cycles: From 70% Dips to 30% Corrections

Bitcoin’s price history is marked by dramatic bear markets. Corrections during previous downturns often reached 70–80%, causing panic among investors. However, recent trends show a qualitative change in this dynamic.

How has volatility changed?

• Previous cycles: extreme jumps with sharp declines and quick recoveries
• Current trends: more moderate pullbacks, typically in the range of 20–32%

This difference reflects the growing maturity of the market and the influence of institutional capital, which absorbs shocks rather than amplifies panic.

The Role of “Whales” in Shaping Market Cycles

Large Bitcoin holders, known as “whales,” have a significant impact on prices. When they sell large volumes over a short period, it triggers panic among small investors, intensifying downward trends. Conversely, accumulation by whales during downturns creates price support for future growth.

However, even this influence has weakened with the entry of institutions, as their large portfolios distribute risk more evenly.

Forecasts for the Coming Years: When to Expect Peaks and Dips

Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s price could reach a peak between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026. However, after halving, the price is expected to follow a more subdued trajectory compared to previous cycles.

Potential scenarios for the next bear market:

• Moderate corrections: Expect declines in the range of 30–50%, significantly less dramatic than the 70–80% drops seen in the past
• Volatility near historical highs: Bitcoin typically exhibits fluctuations near its ATH, which could cause short-term pullbacks before further growth

Balancing Innovation and Regulation

Emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and blockchain upgrades, will have unpredictable impacts on market dynamics. At the same time, regulatory clarity remains critical for sustainable growth. Achieving a balance between innovation and regulation will be a decisive factor for Bitcoin over the next decade.

Regulatory authorities worldwide are increasingly influencing cryptocurrency markets, potentially altering the timing and scale of price movements.

What Investors Should Focus On

Bitcoin’s market cycles are evolving. The four-year halving cycle remains an important milestone, but its role as the primary driver of prices is weakening due to a combination of new factors: institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technological innovations.

Understanding this dynamic is crucial for navigating Bitcoin’s market complexity in the coming years. Investors buying into Bitcoin’s dips should consider not only technical cycles but also the broader economic environment, the influence of major players, and regulatory prospects.