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ETH Trading Review: Missing the 3029 profit-taking high and precise reversal analysis from the 2892 long position at high of 2950 short position

1. The core reason for missing the 3029 exit signal from the 2892 long position

This ETHUSDT long position was opened at 22:47 on December 17, 2025, at 2892.36 USDT. During the holding period, when the price surged to the key high of 3030 USDT, the position was not closed. The core issue stems from greed-driven misjudgment of target levels:

1. Overly optimistic subjective expectations: After the price broke through the previous resistance at 3050 USDT, it was believed that the market would directly push towards the 3100 USDT threshold, ignoring the heavy selling pressure in the 3050-3100 USDT range and the technical pullback needs caused by the short-term rally (from 2892 to 3050, a total increase of 158 USDT).

2. Selective neglect of signals: When volume waned and MACD divergence appeared at 3030 USDT, clear signals to close the position, the trader was distracted by the fantasy of “continued rise after breakout,” failing to realize profits in time. This ultimately led to the price falling back to 2950 USDT, where a passive reversal short position was initiated.

2. Trend signal capture at 23:45 when reversing into a short position at 2950 USDT

The reversal into a short position at 2950 USDT (actual average opening price 2950.12 USDT) was a precise recognition and execution of a market reversal signal, based on:

1. Price pattern and resistance verification: After the price hit the 3029-3000 USDT range and quickly retreated, forming a “pin reversal” pattern, with 2950 USDT serving as the previous long position’s exit price, it became a critical watershed for the market turning from bullish to bearish. Falling below this level signaled the complete exhaustion of buying momentum.

2. Time and volume resonance: At 23:45, a large volume of short orders was executed, with volume suddenly increasing. Meanwhile, the hourly candlestick showed a long upper shadow. Combining the contract market’s leverage of 100x and capital game characteristics, it was determined that the short-term trend had shifted from bullish to bearish.

3. Clear technical indicator signals: Moving averages quickly turned downward from a bullish alignment, the upper band of Bollinger Bands turned downward and the price broke through the middle band, RSI dropped sharply from overbought levels (above 80). Multiple indicators confirmed the reversal trend, leading to a decisive short at 2950 USDT, with a final exit at 2782.37 USDT, achieving a 110.72% return.

Personal ETH Trading Insights from Yesterday

1. Bought ETH at 2892 long, saw the price break 3029 and got greedy, always thinking about touching 3050-3100, missed the 3029 exit signal, and finally passively reversed into a short at 2950. Fortunately, I kept an eye on volume and candlestick patterns, and decisively reversed into a short at 2950, dropping to 2782, which also filled the greed pit. In trading, greed is forbidden; signals are king!

2. This ETH operation was a lesson in greed and a missed reversal opportunity. After breaking 3050 from the 2892 long, I was tempted by 3100, ignoring the 3030 exit signal, and the price fell back to 2950. Luckily, at 23:45, I saw volume surge and candlestick reversal, and decisively shorted at 2950, catching the downtrend to 2782. Remember, in contract trading, taking profits is always better than blindly chasing highs!

3. Lesson from ETH 2892 long: after breaking 3050 and obsessing over 3100, missed the 3029 exit signal, and regretted not closing at 2950. But it was a blessing in disguise—by observing price patterns and volume changes, I caught the reversal signal at 2950 and went short, earning 110.72%. Greed can blind people; only by focusing on signals can you catch the trend rhythm!