Bitcoin will reach a new high in 2026, with the halving effect significantly weakened. The appearance of 10.11 has reduced the likelihood of a major market crash.

Cryptocurrency investment firms and index fund management institutions like Bitwise believe that even though the past two months have been sluggish, Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high again in 2026.
CEO Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin historically follows a four-year cycle, with three years of significant growth followed by a deep correction year. According to this cycle, 2026 should be a correction year. But we believe this will not happen.
In our view, the core forces that drove the four-year cycle in the past—Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and the boom and bust of the leveraged crypto market—have weakened significantly compared to previous cycles.
· Halving Effect: By definition, each subsequent Bitcoin halving is only half as important as the previous one.
· Interest Rate Environment: Interest rates rose sharply in 2018 and 2022, suppressing prices; in 2026, we expect interest rates to decline.
· Bubble Burst Risk: After the record-breaking liquidation in October 2025, the relative contraction of leverage and improved regulation have reduced the likelihood of a major market crash.
More importantly, the institutional capital wave that began after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026. Platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Securities will start asset allocation. Meanwhile, the crypto market is expected to begin benefiting from the pro-crypto regulatory shift following the 2024 US election, with Wall Street and fintech companies starting to truly adopt cryptocurrencies. The combined effect of these factors is expected to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high.