#美联储降息预测 $UNI ‌Has UNI, which dropped from 18U to 5U, already “bit the dust”?

In fact, UNI is also considered a veteran in the crypto circle and is widely recognized as a pioneer of DEFI. Uncle Meow first started paying attention to UNI in 2020, when DEFI protocols had not yet “emerged.” Later, the launch of UNI directly changed everything, transforming the crypto space from a hype-driven track into a true island of financial innovation.
After UNI was launched, various DEFI protocols appeared in the market, such as SUSHI, BAL, PANCAKE, which are essentially upgraded or variant versions of UNI.
Subsequently, the UNI project team continued to innovate, evolving from the low-capacity, broad liquidity market-making mechanism to the high-liquidity, narrow-range market-making mechanism in V3, and later to the customizable HOOK in V4. Every step was precisely aligned with DEFI innovation.
However, as the pioneer of DEFI, UNI’s token performance has always been underwhelming. The main reason is that the token’s empowerment is too weak. The UNI team focused mainly on project optimization. The innovations in V3’s DLMM and V4’s HOOK are indeed groundbreaking, including the recent UNCHAIN, which elevated the UNI project to the public chain track and broadened the valuation tolerance for the token. But after the 2022 bear market, UNI’s token has shown little improvement, and people’s perception of UNI has shifted more towards “a worthless mascot” rather than “a project’s stock.” It wasn’t until the UNI token buyback mechanism was established in November that market sentiment started to turn.
UNI’s Launch
Uniswap’s first version (v1) started operating in November 2018 (released at DevCon 4), followed by the second version (v2) in May 2020, and the highly anticipated third version (v3) in March 2021. Meanwhile, Uniswap supports various Ethereum layer-2 solutions such as Optimism, Arbitrum, and Polygon. Uniswap is recognized as the pioneer of (decentralized exchanges) (DEX), first for promoting the constant product pricing curve X*Y=K in V2, and then for implementing concentrated liquidity and staggered trading fees in V3. Since then, many other DEXs have adopted the constant product pricing curve. Therefore, UNI is considered a pioneer of DEFI.
Battle with SUSHI for the leading position
In August 2020, Sushiswap launched as a fork of Uniswap, initiating a “vampire attack”: Uniswap LPs could stake tokens to earn SUSHI rewards, which would then automatically migrate liquidity. Within a week, nearly $2 billion of Uniswap LPs flowed into Sushiswap, and SUSHI’s market cap approached $300 million. Sushiswap grew rapidly and weakened Uniswap’s dominance.
Uniswap LPs rely solely on trading fees and are vulnerable to impermanent loss; Sushiswap LPs, in addition to trading fees, receive SUSHI incentives and continue to enjoy dividends after withdrawing. In September, Sushiswap’s TVL surpassed Uniswap’s, capturing 70% of its liquidity. Uniswap was forced to counterattack, launching UNI airdrops to early users and opening mining for four major pools (USDT/ETH, USDC/ETH, DAI/ETH, WBTC/ETH). Liquidity quickly rebounded, TVL hit new highs, and the throne was successfully secured.
Thus, the purpose of the UNI token’s creation was more like an airdrop gift for users. Back then, it was mainly used as a reward, but the increasing popularity of the DEFI track also drove UNI’s token price higher, with a peak increase of 5000%. However, after the bear market, it has shown little improvement until now.
In November, UNI’s token mechanism was upgraded with a buyback feature
The upgrade of the UNI token has become a key focus. It seems the project team wants to turn this “mascot” into a true “value catcher.”
Past value of UNI token:
Value source: solely from trading matches (AMM), with no systematic value return to the token (due to concerns over regulatory risks of dividend-like designs).
Governance token UNI: weak value capture (has governance rights but no real income anchor).
Upgraded UNI token value:
Value source: diversified and “internalized”
Trading protocol fees (v2/v3/v4)
Unichain (Sequencer fees)
MEV internalization (PFDA)
External liquidity aggregation fees (Aggregator Hooks)
Value return method: unified into a burn pool → deflation
Governance token UNI: strong deflation + strong alignment
Therefore, after the announcement of this buyback upgrade in November, the token price increased by over 50%, proving that a significant part of current user confidence in the token comes from the project team’s positioning of its own token.
UNISWAP on-chain data
1. TVL (the most basic reflection of project value)
Currently around 4 billion USD, relatively stable, with no strong growth or decline expectations.
2. FEES (reflects user activity)
Current data shows a downward trend compared to October, indicating overall trading sentiment is low.
3. DEX Volume
Trading volume has dropped sharply due to liquidity loss.
Overall on-chain data shows that UNI’s on-chain performance has been very stable. It remains a leading DEFI project with strong user stickiness (top security among DEFI projects). The recent token upgrade’s benefits need time to materialize.
Uncle Meow’s future outlook on UNI
I was very bearish on UNI before. When UNCHAIN launched, it didn’t give any GAS empowerment to the UNI token. I once thought the UNI project team had given up on the UNI token, so I didn’t hold any UNI. It was only after the buyback plan was announced two months ago that they truly showed willingness to empower the token.
Although this buyback plan is unlikely to boost the token price in the short term, given the large number of trapped positions above and the fact that market perception of DEFI tokens has not changed much since 2023, no matter how good the project is, its value is hard to reflect in the token price.
But since there is an upgrade plan, it shows the project team has not given up on its own token. If UNI is to soar in the future, it still depends on subsequent buyback efforts, trading volume, FEES, TVL, and other data, because fundamentals are the cornerstone of a token’s value.
In the later bear market, I think adding UNI to a dollar-cost averaging plan is a reasonable investment strategy. Currently, UNI’s price has fallen back to the lows of 2023’s bear market. We can wait for a true emotional low before paying close attention to the real low prices.