After the sharp decline on 10·11, has the market truly recovered?😮

If you only look at the price, many people might think:
“Since it didn’t continue to plummet, it should be considered a recovery, right?”
But if you shift your perspective from candlestick charts to liquidity, position structure, and derivatives pricing, the conclusion might be entirely different—
The current crypto market feels more like entering a “liquidity recession” phase rather than the eve of a new rebound.

1. The order book is telling you: It’s not bullish, it’s that no one is willing to buy
The first sign of trouble appeared in the order book depth of BTC perpetual contracts.
Since October, the buy and sell depth for BTC perpetuals has been continuously shrinking:

Previously, common buy orders exceeded $200 million

Now, it has been maintained in the $100–200 million range

The gap between long and short depth remains extremely low

This isn’t a sign of bullish dominance, nor bearish dominance,
but rather—liquidity providers are disappearing.
True recovery should be accompanied by thicker buy orders and more active, proactive trading;
but the current order book state looks more like:

“Everyone is in no rush to sell, but no one is willing to buy with real money either.”

2. Altcoin market: Falling prices no longer attract bottom-fishing
If BTC can still hold on with “consensus,”
then the signals from the altcoin market are even more direct.

Futures open interest continues to decline

Trading volume shrinks in tandem

Prices dip, but there’s no corresponding increase in buying

This is a very typical state:
Decline ≠ cheap, but “no one wants to take the risk.”
When the market shifts from “panic bottom-fishing” to “cold storage,”
it often means that funds no longer believe in the short-term rebound narrative.

3. The options market: Where is the real capital protecting?
While spot and futures may still carry some sentiment,
the options market often reflects the true judgment.
Currently, there are several very critical changes in the BTC options market:
1️⃣ BTC options open interest approaching 90%
This is significantly above the historical average,
indicating that market pricing power is highly concentrated among:

Institutions

Market makers

Hedge funds

Retail investors have almost no say at this stage.

2️⃣ Call options “look bullish,” but essentially are like lottery tickets
Indeed, the number of call options still dominates,
but a closer look at the strike price distribution shows:

A large concentration above $100,000

Very low premiums

More like low-cost tail bets

This isn’t confidence in a rally, but rather:
“Since it’s cheap, might as well buy a possibility.”

3️⃣ The capital truly draining away is from low-strike put options
The real concentration of funds is at:

$85,000 and below

Absorbing about 75% of the options capital

Put premiums are noticeably high

This isn’t speculation; it’s defense.
High put prices reflect that:
Main players are buying insurance against downside risk, not betting on a breakout.

4. Stablecoin flows: The split between retail and institutions is now evident
Stablecoin data further confirms this structural split.
USDT: Still in exchanges

Exchange reserves have risen to historic highs

Speculators are still active in the market

Mostly in a “waiting for opportunity” state

This is typical retail behavior:
They don’t sell, but also dare not aggressively buy in.

USDC: Moving out

Exchange reserves have significantly decreased in the short term

Regulatory-compliant institutions are actively reducing risk exposure

More inclined to exit or shift to low-risk assets

Behind this is a completely different risk appetite.
👉 One is waiting to buy the dip, the other is managing risk.

5. Conclusion: This isn’t accumulation, but a tug-of-war
Looking at these signals together, the conclusion becomes very clear:

Order book thinning → Liquidity retreat

Altcoins ignored → Risk appetite declining

Options focus shifting downward → Main players are defending

Stablecoin split → Institutions are withdrawing, retail is waiting

The market after 10·11 isn’t in a “bottoming out and then rising” phase,
but more like a tug-of-war with continuous liquidity drain and institutional wall-building.
Compared to the emotional breakout expectation of $100,000,
whether $85,000 can be effectively defended is the real critical point to watch.
The market isn’t without opportunities,
but right now, it’s more like a game of patience and capital structure rather than an emotion-driven bull rush.