14:40

Recap of yesterday's strategy and general direction judgment, no issues at all, all points were perfect, just myself being a fool and not following the plan. But luckily, it didn’t cause too much loss. Not going to talk about that anymore, feeling frustrated. I think doing trading like this can easily lead to brain hemorrhage and heart problems. After analyzing today's strategy and the general direction, I went to play chess with the old man.
Returning to the current market situation, currently from 1-4 hours, the trend is bearish, but in the late stage. Whether it can continue to decline depends on whether it can effectively break below 3180-90. If you don't know what effective and ineffective mean, go learn about it.
If the level breaks, look at 3110-3100. This level must see a stop in the decline and continue the daily rebound, so profits won’t be small.
Conversely, if support holds, it will move in a range within intraday fluctuations, as shown in the two trend lines below. The current wide fluctuation zone is around 3240-3180. If it doesn’t hit specific points, it will be near that range. Conversely, if it breaks above 3240, then it will go to around 3275-90. At this level, long positions will definitely exit, and similarly, if it drops to around 3110, short positions will definitely exit.
But whether long positions can re-enter after being exited depends on subsequent trends, as well as how much impact the evening unemployment data and US stocks will bring.
Note: For operational ideas, I personally recommend adopting a high shorting approach, not going long, just like I reminded everyone yesterday and the day before not to short. Yesterday and the day before, the approach was to go long at low points, which at least avoids losing money. Shorting is more risky and can cause losses. The same logic applies today: this long approach can be missed without losing money, but shorting is more stable. If you want to act, do it at key levels. After all, with smaller stop-losses, it’s possible to take a gamble, even for short-term trades.
Bitcoin (大饼) and Ethereum are weaker, with relatively worse volatility. Support is around 89800-87600. Based on the structure and other factors, shorting Bitcoin is not cost-effective. Wait and see. Then, buy in batches around 89800-87000, with a stop-loss below 87600, and take profit around 91200-92500. Take it step by step.
Ethereum and Bitcoin are different; they may not move in sync. It’s better to observe more because, on the daily chart level, there’s still a chance for an upward surge. However, below the 4-hour level, there’s conflict, so overall, there’s a higher probability of wide-range oscillation.
This is my personal opinion, for reference only.