Summary of Key Points from Powell's Press Conference:

1. Interest Rate Outlook: We can wait and observe how the economy develops. Currently, rates are at the upper end of the neutral range. No one is currently considering a rate hike as a baseline expectation. Long-term interest rates may rise due to expectations of accelerated economic growth.

2. Inflation Outlook: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Peak inflation could be a few percentage points higher or lower than the current level. The current inflation overshoot is mainly caused by tariffs. If tariffs are removed, inflation will be at the lower end of the 2% range. The impact of tariffs is likely to be one-time.

3. Economic Outlook: Do not believe the economy is overheating. The baseline outlook for next year is steady growth, and we can wait and observe how developments unfold.

4. Employment Outlook: There are downside risks in the labor market. Employment growth over the past few months has been overstated by 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate could increase by another 0.1%–0.2% at most.

5. Debt Purchases: Buying short-term Treasury bills is only for reserve management. The scale of bond purchases may remain high in the coming months, then gradually decrease.

6. Latest Expectations: As of press time, futures markets expect a total of 55 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed next year, a slight increase from previous forecasts, with a 24.4% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in January.

7. Market Response: From the release of the Fed statement until Powell’s speech, gold and silver initially rose, then fell, and then climbed again. Silver hit a historic high, U.S. Treasury yields fell by about 4 basis points, the dollar weakened overall, non-U.S. currencies strengthened, U.S. stocks trended higher, with the Dow rising over 1%. Trump criticized Powell after the meeting, stating that the rate cut could have been larger.