The Fed's December meeting (3 AM on December 10), and the entire market is currently betting in the same direction:
There’s an 80%+ chance of a 25bp rate cut, and only about a 15% chance of keeping rates unchanged. The difficulty for this FOMC meeting is simple—the inflation just won’t die, and labor data is starting to look shaky again. Powell now seems like someone being forced to choose an answer: If he cuts, he’s worried about prices rising; If he doesn’t cut and year-end employment data weakens further, he’ll get blamed.
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The Fed's December meeting (3 AM on December 10), and the entire market is currently betting in the same direction:
There’s an 80%+ chance of a 25bp rate cut, and only about a 15% chance of keeping rates unchanged.
The difficulty for this FOMC meeting is simple—the inflation just won’t die, and labor data is starting to look shaky again.
Powell now seems like someone being forced to choose an answer:
If he cuts, he’s worried about prices rising;
If he doesn’t cut and year-end employment data weakens further, he’ll get blamed.