2025-11-25 12:05:32

[The Trump Family Enters the Prediction Market: Is This a Bullish Sign or a Warning?]

I didn't expect the Trump family to launch a prediction platform—Truth Predict, built on the Truth Social ecosystem. Reportedly, it aims to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, with the tagline "A Patriot's Prediction Market."
This is interesting: ① Trump himself is the biggest "underlying asset" in the 2024 prediction markets (on Polymarket, "Trump Wins" has over $3 billion in trading volume); ② Now he wants to run the platform—does this count as "the referee joining the game"? ③ If the platform allows predictions on "Trump's policy direction," the information advantage would be huge.
A deeper question: If celebrities/politicians run prediction platforms, will they become tools for "manipulating public opinion"?
This reminds me of the OracleX whitepaper (
OracleX's proposed DAO governance + adversarial adjudication mechanism, at least in theory, can prevent single-entity manipulation. Of course, DAOs can also be controlled by whales, but that's still better than a CEO having the final say.
Trump entering the game is a signal: Prediction markets have moved from the fringes to the mainstream. But we must be wary of them being hijacked by power and capital.
Technology is neutral, but the people who use it are not.
#TruthPredict # prediction markets #decentralization

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