Will Trump's $2000 "tariff bonus" really hit our Wallets?

When it was just announced, BTC rose by 1.75% and ETH by 3.32%, and the market went wild. However, looking closely at this operation, there are still quite a few issues:

**1. Where did this money come from?**
Tariff revenue $195B vs national debt $37T, a drop in the bucket. Essentially, it directly distributes the money from importing companies to consumers, not something that is created out of thin air.

**2. Can it really be achieved?**
The prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi is a slap in the face—there's only a 22-23% chance that this will pass legal review. Without congressional approval, no timeline, and no specific standards, it's currently just an empty check.

**3. Long-term Concerns**
Short-term stimulus = long-term inflation. The last pandemic relief directly drove BTC from 4000 to 69000, but it also pushed US inflation close to 10%. This time, with a larger scale of cash injection, the Fed will still have to raise interest rates to curb inflation, and at that time, risk assets (including the crypto market) will be washed out.

**Bottom Line:** This is like a happy Christmas candy, it's sweet for a moment but gone quickly, and you have to bear the toothache (inflation) yourself. Short-term FOMO is okay, just don't bet your life.