2025-11-19 10:32:30

#特朗普撤销农业产品关税 is going to explode this Thursday! Two major events are colliding: the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) will be released, directly determining what the Fed will do next; Nvidia's earnings report is the finale, and whether tech stocks will rise depends entirely on it. Once these two data points are out, the flow of funds will basically be decided.

What is the ideal scenario? US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) falling short of expectations (which means less pressure for interest rate hikes), and Nvidia's earnings report exceeding expectations (indicating that the tech sector still has potential). If these two come together, risk assets may rebound in the short term. $BTC might just stabilize the current position and take a breather.

But don't be too happy too soon. Even if both of these data are strong, it won't change the current trend - the bears are still in control.

You can tell by looking at the recent performance of $BTC. After rebounding from that point at 1011, it has been gradually declining. The trading volume is decreasing, and each rebound is weaker than the last, which is a typical characteristic of the end of a bull market. The funds in the market are now fully in risk-off mode. What is the so-called "rebound expectation"? To put it bluntly, it is just a technical correction in a bearish trend, not a real reversal. This wave of decline has not yet reached its bottom, and winter is still long.

How to operate? My suggestion is to take a wait-and-see approach and definitely do not heavily bet on the direction.

If the data is indeed favorable, pushing $BTC to rebound, you can try a light short position near the short-term resistance level; if the data is unfavorable and breaks down directly, be sure to hold back and don't try to catch the bottom. Wait until the bottom signal is really clear before making a move. $ETH and $BNB follow the same logic, now is not the time to go all in.

BTC-2,11%

ETH-3,66%

BNB-3,43%

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OnChainDetective

· 2025-11-22 04:26

Wait a moment, I need to verify this trading volume data... Are the whales' wallets moving again before the non-farm payroll? The several institutional addresses I monitored yesterday are a bit unusual, the transfer pattern has completely changed.

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MEVHunterBearish

· 2025-11-20 23:52

I agree with the wait-and-see approach this time, but to be honest, the fact that the non-farm payroll and Nvidia are releasing data at the same time is a trap in itself; the funds have already moved ahead. Waiting for the bottom is indeed true, but this bottom may be lower than you think.

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MoonRocketTeam

· 2025-11-20 17:26

On Thursday, these two bombs will be thrown together, either the rocket will take off or it will crash directly. Now entering a position is all about a gambler's mentality. Short positions are still draining, don't be fooled by the illusion of a rebound, wait until the signal is truly clear before making a move. Observing in the short term, Heavy Position is looking for death. If the data is favourable, you can try to position for a short order, but going all in? Dream on, brother. This wave hasn't hit the bottom yet, winter is still far away, don't rush.

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RadioShackKnight

· 2025-11-19 11:02

Ha, it's this trap of non-farm payrolls and earnings reports again. Every time they say it will explode, but isn't it just the rhythm of downward movement reaching the bottom?

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StableBoi

· 2025-11-19 11:01

To be honest, these two pieces of data on Thursday feel a bit overhyped. Anyway, I’m just watching and not going all in. Anyone with a clear mind can see that this is just a rebound in a downtrend, don’t get played for a sucker. If Nvidia fails, how will the tech zone rise? Let’s just wait and see. The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data coming out probably won't be that favourable, just take a look and don’t be too optimistic. The downward movement and bottom scraping state looks uncomfortable, better to wait for the bottom to be confirmed before taking action. With such low trading volume, how can there be a rebound? It’s better to stay alert, the short positions haven’t fully retreated yet. Even with both pieces of data being favourable, it won't change the big trend; winter is still far away, brother. Trying a light position can be okay, but definitely don’t gamble, this is not the time for that. If it breaks down, just hold on, don’t go buying the dip and stepping on mines, this cycle isn’t over yet. $BTC can't hold steady, and other coins shouldn’t expect to do well either, that’s just how it is.

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FOMOrektGuy

· 2025-11-19 10:49

Here we go with the storytelling again. Can non-farm payrolls and Nvidia save the market? Wake up, buddy, the short positions aren't over yet.

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GasWrangler

· 2025-11-19 10:47

technically speaking, this "bounce narrative" is just sub-optimal positioning by retail... volume decay is demonstrably false strength, if you analyze the actual mempool data. observation mode is mathematically superior to conviction trading rn, ngl

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governance_lurker

· 2025-11-19 10:45

It's this rebound trap again, it's really time to wake up. I think short positions still need to continue pressing, no matter how good the non-farm data is, it won't save this situation. If Nvidia's earnings report really exceeds expectations, I would wash my hair upside down, but the possibility is low. Watching + Light Position is indeed safe, but it's easy to miss out, which is uncomfortable. Waiting for the bottom signal? I'm afraid we'll have to wait until the flowers wither.

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GateUser-9f682d4c

· 2025-11-19 10:44

The non-farm payroll and Nvidia together can indeed determine the short-term trend, but the brother is right, this round of short positions is not over yet, and the rebounds are just technical corrections, don't be fooled.

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fren.eth

· 2025-11-19 10:41

Ha, here comes another wave of "this time it's different" claims, I'm not buying it. Just waiting for Thursday, it's all the same routine anyway. If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, I’ll admit defeat, and it's even funnier if Nvidia isn't doing well. Guys with Heavy Position really gave it away this time. Wait a minute, will Trump's withdrawal of agricultural tariffs end up suppressing the tech zone? That's interesting. Short positions are still in control, let's not deceive ourselves, everyone. Clear bottom signals? Ha, I've heard that too many times. Light Position short order is indeed stable, just afraid of accidentally going Heavy Position. I’m still observing, there’s nothing good to operate on.

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