Where is the cap for #比特币披萨节 Bitcoin?

Various institutions have different views on the "bull market" peak target.
The Standard Chartered Bank digital asset research team expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing that American investors are accelerating their shift from sovereign assets to non-sovereign assets.
Analysts at Bernstein are optimistic about reaching $200,000 by the end of next year based on the approval of ETFs and favorable regulatory expectations, and they predict it could reach $500,000 by 2029.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated at the Davos Forum that once sovereign wealth funds and institutions begin to allocate on a small scale, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise to 700,000 dollars, highlighting the premium effect of large institutional allocations.
Looking at the historical four-year halving cycles, the previous two peaks were approximately $20,000 and $60,000, respectively. If we estimate the reasonable upper limit for this round based on the Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT) model, it falls within the range of $200,000 to $500,000, which roughly aligns with the expectations of the aforementioned institutions. The NVT model emphasizes the combined effect of the reduction in issuance rate and the growth in the network's utility value, providing a valuation anchor for this bull market.
Of course, the options market also expresses more aggressive bets: the volume of call options with a strike price of $300,000 on Deribit has surged to the second highest, reflecting some traders' expectations for the price to "enter unknown territory" and the risk of Gamma squeeze.
Asset attributes and the impact of global political economy
Although the name "digital gold" has become widely recognized, Bitcoin still shows a strong positive correlation with growth assets when bond yields soar or the stock market is under pressure. After the bond yield jumped on May 21, Bitcoin briefly fell over 3% to $106,307, confirming its weakness as a traditional safe-haven asset.
From the perspective of asset allocation, institutional investors are viewing Bitcoin as a "growth + hedge" composite tool: under the expectation that the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to significantly cut interest rates due to inflation and fiscal deficit pressures, Bitcoin has become a candidate asset for hedging against the depreciation of the dollar and inflation. However, in the short term, its high volatility characteristics also bring significant drawdown risks, necessitating a dynamic balance with stocks and bonds.
At the geopolitical level, signs of marginalization in China-U.S. relations are increasing, and the U.S. market's risk appetite is warming up, injecting speculative buying into Bitcoin; the EU's MiCA and Japan's flexible licensing system also form a contrast, while China's continued strict controls are intensifying the competition for funds in the "regulatory oasis" of the U.S. and Europe.
In the future, the price of Bitcoin will continue to be driven by the combined effects of the U.S. fiscal deficit, monetary policy divergence, Sino-U.S. competition, and changes in the global regulatory environment.
In summary, this round of the Bitcoin bull market is expected to continue in the range of 200,000 to 500,000 USD, but there are risks of pullbacks and volatility. Paying attention to macro policy dynamics and regulatory developments is key to grasping investment opportunities in the next stage.