Powell's speech forecast on May 8: Analysis of The Federal Reserve's policy position (FED) and the interest rate cut path.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve (FED) Jerome Powell will deliver a monetary policy statement and hold a press conference at 2:30 AM Beijing time on May 8. This meeting is the third policy meeting of the Federal Reserve (FED) in 2025, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve (FED) to keep interest rates unchanged, but Powell's statement will provide key guidance for the policy path in the second half of this year. Here are the core predictions and analysis:
One, Policy Stance: Maintaining a wait-and-see position, emphasizing reliance on data
Currently, the "hard data" of the US economy is strong, with core PCE inflation of 2.6% year-on-year in March, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate stabilized at 3.8%. Despite the Trump administration's pressure to cut interest rates, the Fed is expected to remain "silent", reiterating its position that it is "in no hurry to adjust interest rates", and stressing the need to observe the impact of tariff policy on inflation and the economy. The meeting statement is likely to refine the economic description by changing "stable expansion of economic activity" to "slowdown" to reflect the current state of GDP contraction in the first quarter.
Two, Focus of Discussion: Dual Challenges of Inflation and Rates
Powell will focus on addressing two main issues:
1. Inflation resilience: Although price pressures on goods have eased, housing inflation has a significant lag and requires more time to reflect improvements in the data. Powell may reaffirm the goal of "ensuring that one-time price increases do not develop into sustained inflation."
2. Impact of Tariffs: Trump's tariff policy could lead to increased import costs and disruptions in the supply chain. The Federal Reserve (FED) needs to evaluate its impact on inflation expectations and long-term economic growth. Wells Fargo indicates that in the current uncertainty, The Federal Reserve (FED) needs to balance its dual responsibilities of "curbing inflation" and "preventing recession."
Three, Time of Interest Rate Cuts: The earliest could start in July, but the threshold has increased.
Markets generally expect the Federal Reserve (FED) to cut rates by 25 basis points in July for the first time, and will cut rates 1-2 more times before the end of the year. However, institutions such as Goldman Sachs argue that the Federal Reserve (FED) has set a higher threshold for interest rate cuts, which would require clear evidence of significant labor market weakness or a sustained decline in inflation. Citigroup predicts a 125 basis point rate cut this year, but the timing of the cut depends on labor market data.
Four, Independence Dispute: Responding to Trump's Pressure
Trump recently criticized Powell for "persisting", but Powell is expected to reaffirm the independence of The Federal Reserve (FED), avoiding politicized statements, while at the same time emphasizing that policy adjustments are based solely on economic data.
Conclusion
The key signal from this meeting is "keep waiting, the interest rate cut has not arrived yet". If economic data remains robust, the rate cut in July may be further postponed; if the impact of tariffs causes growth to slow down or inflation to fall more than expected, then the window for easing may open in the second half of this year. Investors need to pay attention to Powell's statement on "whether this policy is sufficiently restrictive", which may signal the risk of future interest rate hikes. #BTC重返97k #Bitwise NEAR ETF 申请 #OBOL 上线福利 #BTC #PI