Gate News reports that on March 16, prediction market Polymarket data shows that in the past 24 hours, 80% of addresses betting on geopolitical topics have wagered $83,600 on the outcome that “U.S. military will not enter Iran before April,” with a cost probability of 71%, currently at 73%.
Trump is pushing to form an international alliance called the “Hormuz Coalition,” aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with plans to officially announce it later this week. Gulf countries with U.S. military bases deny allowing their land or airspace to be used for military actions against Iran. Regarding claims that U.S. forces launched strikes from the UAE, U.S. Central Command denies or has not responded.
Iran continues to launch missile and drone attacks on Israel, U.S. military bases, and Gulf energy facilities. Dubai Airport was temporarily closed after a drone hit nearby oil tanks. Amid this escalation, public U.S. actions remain focused on maritime navigation in the strait, deploying ships with allies, and peripheral containment.
Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may take profits or cut losses at certain points after opening a position. Account address: 0xa3ff29e34b23b468b4ff5dbba28ad9e56bcd540e, with an opening amount of $83,600.
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